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2019 NFL Futures and Props: Most Wins, Most Losses

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Aug/27/2019

We’ve talked about the ‘team with worst record’ and ‘team with best record’ props.  Now we’ll look at a variation on that theme.  The difference is that in these prop bets found in the ‘NFL Regular Season Props’ section at BetOnline.ag we’re looking at Over/Under totals for ‘Most Wins’ and ‘Most Losses’. 

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MOST LOSSES FOR A TEAM IN THE 2019 REGULAR SEASON

OVER 13.5 LOSSES -150
UNDER 13.5 LOSSES +120

Playing the ‘Over’ on this prop would have cashed in 10 of the previous 12 seasons.  The only seasons in that time frame where the ‘most losses’ was fewer than 13 were 2018 and 2015.  The only thing that makes this a slamdunk play on the ‘Over’ is the fact that the worst team in the league had only 13 losses last year.

That makes the next question obvious:  did the worst teams from last year get better or worse in the interim?  That’s tough to say.  The Arizona Cardinals went 3-13 last year and enter this season with a new coach in Kliff Kingsbury and a new quarterback in Kyler Murray.  Kingsbury is trying to bring his pass onslaught into the NFL and the jury is still out on whether or not it’ll work.  Murray is in theory a good fit to play within this system but he’s still got a lot to learn about playing quarterback in the NFL.  The depth chart looks pretty thin after Murray with Brett Hundley and Charles Kanoff next up.

Of course, Arizona’s performance isn’t the sole determinant of whether this bet wins or loses.  As long as one of the teams in the league loses 14 games we cash a ticket.  The best candidate for that dubious distinction might be the Miami Dolphins.  The Dolphins went 7-9 last year but are in the midst of a complete rebuilding effort.  The franchise roster is being gutted to the foundation to prepare for a rebuild under first year head coach Brian Flores.  Miami has the lowest O/U win total at BetOnline.ag (4.5 wins) and the vibe is that the entire franchise is considering this season a ‘write off’.

BET MOST LOSSES FOR A TEAM IN THE 2019 REGULAR SEASON OVER 13.5 LOSSES -150

MOST WINS FOR A TEAM IN THE 2019 REGULAR SEASON

OVER 13.5 WINS +100
UNDER 13.5 WINS -130

Now we’ll flip the script and look for the team with the most wins.  It’s important to keep in mind that the NFL has historically been obsessive in their attempt to achieve parity.  Even so, there are teams that end up significantly outside the mean—good or bad—in just about every season.  The ‘Over’ would have cashed for this prop in 6 of the last 12 seasons meaning that by this metric it’s accurately priced at +100.  It also means that the -130 is a bit of an underlay as the ‘true odds’ based on the past performance data would also be +100.

The recent trend, however, is toward the ‘Under’.  For the previous two seasons 13 wins was the high water mark.  The ‘Over’ for this prop would have cashed only twice in the previous seven seasons.  The New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams each won 13 games last season and while neither team has regressed much (if at all) there’s not a clear sign that they’ve improved dramatically either.  In this proposition, the recent trend toward the ‘Under’ appears to be the most significant.  Taking the ‘even money’ with the ‘Over’ is attractive but there’s more statistical support for a play on the ‘Under’.

BET MOST WINS FOR A TEAM IN THE 2019 REGULAR SEASON UNDER 13.5 WINS -130

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