The San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints betting odds were all over the map heading into Friday morning. A middling opportunity was available as some books were still offering the Saints at -4 ½ while Sports Interaction had San Francisco at +6 (you would be the 49ers at Sports Interaction and the Saints at another online sports book hoping that New Orleans wins by exactly 5 points).
The line opened at -6 ½ so we have seen quite a drop in recent days, an obvious indication that books were trying hard to get action on the Saints.
70 percent of the early betting action was on the Saints, though we anticipated the action being more along the lines of 60/40 New Orleans closer to game time.
New Orleans has owned this series over the last three games since 2004. They have actually won 7 of their last 10 since 1999. The last two games were won by 21 and 24 points, respectively. The home team has won 7 of the last 10 as well, but keep in mind that the last time San Francisco was a -7 ½ point underdog in New Orleans, they ended up covering with a loss of just 3 points.
The Saints won their first home game against Tampa Bay but lost on their last two road trips.
A stat we like: The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. However, they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win; 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record (yeah, that would be San Francisco); and are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game but are also 5-14-3 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU win of more than 14 points, which is quite a telling stat we should point out. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
In the end it may come down to a New Orleans line that should be more in the range of -8 coupled with San Francisco being 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. NFC and 2-6 ATS their last road games.
Gambling911.com will live dangerously here and make a cautious prediction of a New Orleans cover by -4 ½.
-----
Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
