Sports Interaction's betting analyst Frank Doyle makes his free NFL picks for Week 11 of the 2008 season.
One of the big questions any sports bettor must ask him or herself is how much should he or she allow for luck? Sometimes, a team just isn't lucky; how much should you let that affect your judgement?
This is in my mind this week as I consider the line for the San Diego at Pittsburgh game. San Diego is desperate for a win to keep pace with Denver in the AFC West, the Chargers were a hot pick for the Super Bowl back in the summer and Norv Turner's job is, once more, on the line. Pittsburgh jointly leads the AFC North with the Ravens but my goodness, the Steelers have been on the business end of some really bad home beats, like last Sunday against Indianapolis and in October when the Giants won in Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger is getting beaten up every Sunday, and it's beginning to show. Maybe, good and all a team as they are, this year's Steelers just aren't lucky?
If you want to make money betting in football you have to put all that out of your head. You can't allow for superstitions to influence your thinking when you're making your picks. You can deal only in facts. And the facts are that Pittsburgh are a badass football team, and you can't say that to the same extent about the Chargers. Michael Turner is gone, LaDainian Tomlinson is clearly not the player he was and there are many other factors. It's getting very cold in Pittsburgh, and if Big Ben doesn't get you then Lord Byron will. Pittsburgh -4.5 with Sports Interaction is the pick.
Elsewhere, San Diego's divisional opponent Denver has a really tough assignment at Atlanta. Because Denver's rushing game is now a thing of fond and distant memory, the Broncos are very reliant on Jay Cutler's passing. Denver is third in the league in passing yards, but New Orleans is first and Drew Brees got a very torrid time of it from the Falcons last Sunday. The Falcons are for real - Atlanta -6 with Sports Interaction is the pick.
Finally, even though their recent schedule is a beast and they laid a great big egg at Cleveland a few Monday nights ago, it's very hard not to think that the New York Giants will win and cover against Baltimore in the Meadowlands. The Baltimore offense is very reliant on the run - if the Giants stop the Ravens on the ground they force Flacco to take to the air, and that's always fraught for any rookie quarterback. The Giants -6 with Sports Interaction is the final pick of the week.
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Frank Doyle, Gambling911.com
