Carrie Stroup here and these are the Gambling911.com 2008 Week 4 NFL predictions:
Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers - This is a hard game to bet. Strong points to look at, however, are Atlanta's ability to win or not lose by more than the current spread over their last 4 games in this series when Atlanta was arguably a much worse team than they are now. Carolina being 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games is another reason why Atlanta should be considered as a team that could cover here. Carolina being 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss is the only thing that really stands out favoring the Panthers here.
San Francisco vs. New Orleans - New Orleans has owned this series over the last three games since 2004. They have actually won 7 of their last 10 since 1999. The last two games were won by 21 and 24 points, respectively. The home team has won 7 of the last 10 as well, but keep in mind that the last time San Francisco was a -7 ½ point underdog in New Orleans, they ended up covering with a loss of just 3 points.
The Saints won their first home game against Tampa Bay but lost on their last two road trips.
A stat we like: The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. However, they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win; 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record (yeah, that would be San Francisco); and are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game but are also 5-14-3 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU win of more than 14 points, which is quite a telling stat we should point out. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
In the end it may come down to a New Orleans line that should be more in the range of -8 coupled with San Francisco being 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. NFC and 2-6 ATS their last road games.
Gambling911.com will live dangerously here and make a cautious prediction of a New Orleans cover by -4 ½.
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Bucs - Over the last two head-to-head games in this series, the away team had won. Prior to this time it was all about the home team winning, all the way back to 1998. In fact, the Packers are 1-5 lifetime at Raymond James Stadium (ouch!). Granted, it will be their first trip back to Tampa since 2003 and this is one of the youngest teams in the league, so do the math. Green Bay won that game in 2003, lost the previous year in Tampa.
Some important trends to look at: The Packers are 7-0-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss. They are also 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 road games. They are 16-6-2 ATS in their last 24 vs. NFC. Green Bay is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games on grass. Green Bay has won nine of its last 11 road games.
The Bucs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games but 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Part of the Packers' recent success has been their ability to rebound after a loss. The team last sustained back-to-back losses in 2006, when it lost three straight contests (Weeks 11-13).
Entering Sunday, Rodgers has thrown 148 passes without an interception.
Gambling911.com believes the odds makers have this line right on the money at Tampa Bay Bucs -1 ½.
All things considered, we believe stat trends strongly and the strength of Green Bay strongly favors a win by the Packers. Their streak in bouncing back from a loss is solid.
Buffalo Bills vs. St. Louis Rams - Gambling911.com's opinion on this game is that the Bills should have no problem covering the 8 point line.
Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys - Gambling911.com believes the Dallas line should be -10 and historic stats suggest Washington should be able to cover here.
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Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
