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New Jersey Governor Chris Christie released his forecast for taxes derived from online gambling over a one-year period, averaged after five years.
He anticipates the sector will take in $160 million.
Those numbers are actually down from $180 million.
But those figures might be inflated based on some other estimates.
John Brennan of the Bergen Record points out that a Wells Fargo analyst has a startup year figure of $650M to $850M.
Split the difference and make it $750M, and that’s only $112.5M, not $180M – or even $160M.
Brennan adds:
The Wells Fargo estimate seems to be a but of an outlier. A December 2010 analysis provided for iMega, the online gambling industry’s lobbying arm, estimated revenues that would only lead to about $35M or so in the first full year. Two months ago, industry research firm Gambling Data’s figures would mean $39M in the first year of operation.
Cut those two numbers by one-third to account for the less than full year of revenues in the first fiscal year, and you’re looking at roughly $25M – not $160M.
The Governor’s office has the highest estimates, as noted by Brennan.
- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com
