Mississippi State vs. Alabama Spread -13

Written by :

Don Shapiro

Published on :

13 November, 2010

The Mississippi State vs. Alabama spread was at Crimson Tide -13 coming into Saturday evening’s game. The spread action here was even. The UNDER 47 was getting around 75 percent of the betting action (Gambling911.com would note that there are some significant trends favoring the UNDER in this game that we discuss further below.

The Las Vegas Hilton listed the line at Alabama -14. The Hard Rock Casino in Punta Cana listed Alabama at -13. Online, SBG Global had the line at -13.

From ESPN.com:

Mississippi State has won six straight since stumbling out of the gate. Now the Bulldogs play a measuring-stick game against Alabama, which is coming off a loss to LSU. Mississippi State has been running the ball at will of late, breaking the 200-yard mark in five straight games. The Tide have been stingy against the run, ranking 33^rd in the country. Alabama leads the series 72-18-3.

Knocking off Alabama would be huge for number 19-ranked Mississippi State.

"It would be a big win for us," Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen said. "We have pretty high expectations of ourselves and expectations of how we want our season to be. We've been successful to a point so far, so that would be a natural deal for us to improve on that success and continue on our good year."

As for the Tide, who have lost two games so far this season, they are not technically out of the BCS running. Alabama is currently ranked #12.

"Am I concerned that this team has the pride in performance to do that?" Alabama head coach Nick Saban said. "I think it's a reality check for them to see how important it is to you and what you're willing to do to make it happen."

Mississippi State vs. Alabama trends included:

Alabama has won 7 of the last 9 in this series.

The Bulldogs are 5-2 Against The Spread in their last 7 road games.

The Bulldogs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Crimson Tide are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.

The Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater while the Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. (edge: Alabama)

There is significant value in betting the UNDER here. As a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points, the UNDER is 2-10 over the last three seasons. In home games, the UNDER has gone 4-13. The Under is 6-2 in Bulldogs last 8 games following a Straight Up win. There are very few significant trends favoring the OVER here. (edge: UNDER 47)