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From the Two Plus Two Forums regarding Flush vs. Straight in Texas Holdem Poker: Why is it that, at least in Hold'em, despite the fact that the likelihood of a flush is greater than a straight, the flush is still worth more?
Answer 1: The likelyhood of a flush isnt greater until you have already picked up a flush draw. Think about it, when you have 2 spades there are 11 cards you have to help you and you have to hit 3 of those 11. Say you have 56, now you have 4 2s 4 3s 4 4s 4 7s 4 8s 4 9s and 4 10s, a million assortments of these cards can make a str8 draw (not actually a million.) Hence you are much more likely to get a str8 draw then you are to hit a flush draw. I dont remember the exact %s, i thought a flush draw flopped 11% of the time but i could be wrong.
Answer 2: The likelihood of a flush is greater than a straight only because you have assumed two suited cards in the hole + a flush draw on the flop. Change your assumption to two random cards and you'll see that a flush is more difficult to make than a straight.
Answer 3: If you play suited connectors, you will flop:
1 pair, roughly 32%
Flush draw, roughly 10%
8 out Str8, roughly 10%
Gutshot, another 10%
