Vikings Injuries Have Oddsmakers Overcompensating With a 7-Point Line Shift

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Nov/11/2023

The New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings game featured a line of Saints -3 with a few 2.5's splashed in here and there.  According to the Ace Per Head odds and action monitoring, spread betting was balanced.  As such we are not likely to see any opinion here either way from oddsmakers.

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What Our Model Suggests

The 2.5/3 range without going over the critical number 3 is always something that will catch our eye.  The number we get courtesy of Sagarin is 3.76 favoring Minnesota.  Not only is the wrong team favored but we also have an overlay of nearly 7 points.

Sagarin doesn't take into account injuries and other variables early on. 

The Vikings on Friday ruled out quarterback Jaren Hall (concussion).  Kirk Cousins suffered a season ending Achilles injury against the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago but the Vikings still won that game and against Atlanta last week.

Oddsmakers overcompensated perhaps with the 7 point shift and seem to have found the sweet spot with this number.

Minnesota (5-4 Straight Up, 2-6 Against The Spread) also listed Dean Lowry (groin) as doubtful. Tight end T.J. Hockenson (ribs), receiver K.J. Osborn (concussion) and linebacker Brian Asamoah (ankle) as questionable.

Hall completed 3-of-4 passes for 23 yards in the Vikings’ 24-10, Week 8 win over the Packers.

Joshua Dobbs makes his first start for his new team.

Dobbs was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week after passing for 158 yards and two touchdowns and rushing for 66 yards, including an 18-yard touchdown, to lead a 31-28 victory at Atlanta following Hall's departure with the head injury. 

With our model, neither overlays or the wrong team being favored with the number at 3/2.5 without crossing above the 3 are not entirely impactful in the NFL.

Gamblers are advised to stay clear of this game whether betting at a US regulated book, offshore shop or a local pay per head bookie.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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