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Bills Take on Patriots as -3.5 Road Favorite

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Dec/01/2022

Week 13 starts off with a Thursday Night Football prime-time matchup. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills will take on the New England Patriots. Who will prevail in this pivotal AFC East game?

The line on this game was coming in at Bills -3.5 after opening as high as -5.5 earlier in the week.  Gambling911.com arrives at a number of 2.73 with a 1 to 2.5 overlay detected. 

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A few good comparison games include:

Seattle +6.5 to +3.5 Detroit (road team dog Seattle covers and wins by 3 points) Detroit 3.35 Overlay of 3 to On the Money.

Cincinnati -5 to -3.5 Pittsburgh (road favorite CIN covers and wins by 7 points) Cin 4.27 On the Money (line was mostly on 4.5).

Overlays in this number range:

Cincinnati +3 to +3.5 Baltimore (road dog Cincinnati covers with Baltimore 2 point win) Baltimore 1.88 Overlay of 1 to 1.5.

Indianapolis +3.5 Denver (road dog Indianapolis covers and wins) Denver 2.09 - Overlay 1.5.

Tennessee +3 to +3.5 Indianapolis (road favorite Tennessee covers and wins) Indianapolis 1.09 Overlay of 2 to 2.5 points.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 to +4.5 (+5.5) Cleveland (home favorite Cleveland covers and wins by 6 with a final second touchdown scored to make it a 12 point win) Cleveland 1.86 overlay of 1.5 to 2.5.

LA Chargers +3.5 to +4.5 Kansas City (road dog Chargers covers with KC 3 point win) 5.32 Overlay of 1 to 1.5.

One can argue there is somewhat of an edge here for the dog, though it's weak.

The Bills are 3-0-1 Against The Spread in their last 4 meetings in New England and 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 meetings.

LAST MEETING: Bills beat Patriots 47-17 in wild-card round of playoffs on Jan. 15, 2022 in Orchard Park, N.Y.

BetUS host TJ Rives, and expert handicappers Chris Farley and Scott Kellen will give you the sharpest NFL Week 13 picks and predictions.

In his past three starts at New England, Bills quarterback Josh Allen has nine touchdown passes with no interceptions for a 115.3 passer rating.  He ranks second in the NFL with 3,744 combined yards this season and ranks third with 28 total TDs.

The Patriots come into this game off a 33-26 loss in Minnesota last week. Nick Folk had four field goals. On three trips inside Minnesota’s 20, the Patriots never crossed the goal line. New England's percentage scoring touchdowns in the red zone was 42.9% heading into the Thanksgiving Day game.  That is second-worst in the NFL.

The Bills will be without top pass rusher Von Miller.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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