UFC on FOX Betting Odds: Gustafsson vs. Johnson, Davis vs. Bader

Written by:
Carrie Stroup
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UFC on FOX Betting Odds: Gustafsson vs. Johnson, Davis vs. Bader

Carrie Stroup here with your UFC on FOX betting odds for Gustafsson vs. Johnson and Davis vs. Bader.  Find more UFC and MMA odds here and remember your 2nd bet is ALWAYS FREE.

Alexander Gustafsson (16-2) vs. Anthony Johnson (18-4)

Saturday, Jan. 24 – 11:30 p.m. ET

5-Round light heavyweight fight

Sportsbook.ag Line: Gustafsson -280, Johnson +217

Alexander Gustafsson gets to fight in his hometown of Stockholm, Sweden on Saturday night as he takes on Anthony Johnson in a battle of two of the top contenders in the light heavyweight division.

The winner of this matchup should be getting the next title fight against Jon Jones and that's something Gustafsson, has wanted since losing an extremely competitive fight to Jones on September 21, 2013. In that fight, he was able to hit Jones like he had never been hit before, and had the champ in big trouble until the final two rounds.

However, that loss did not linger, as Gustafsson delivered a vicious knockout in his most recent fight against Jimi Manuwa on March 8, 2014. The 28-year-old from Sweden enters this bout extremely fresh, and he will need that against a fighter who is also coming off a dominating performance.

“Rumble” was out of the UFC from January of 2012 to April 26, 2014, but the 30-year-old from Georgia is riding an eight-fight win streak and has been dominant in his past two fights. He has defeated Phil Davis, and most recently Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, with the latter coming in just 44 seconds on July 26. Johnson is as scary of a fighter as there is in the sport, and he has a golden opportunity in this bout. For Johnson, this is the biggest test of his career, as a championship fight would be next with a win. However, the fact that it is in Gustafsson’s home country will be too much to overcome, as Gustafsson will do just enough to earn another title fight against Jones.

"The Mauler" Gustafsson has 16 victories in his career, with 10 of them coming by way of knockout. He also has three wins by both submission and decision, and eight of his finishes have come in the first round. While the 6-foot-5 Gustafsson is three inches taller than Johnson, he will not have the normal reach advantage that he is accustomed to (Gustafsson 79" reach, Johnson 78" reach).  The Swedish fighter’s biggest advantage will be when it comes to landing significant strikes, as he averages almost one more per minute than Johnson (4.05 to 3.07). 

One of Johnson’s biggest weaknesses in the octagon has been his cardio, which has doomed him in a couple of his losses. That will be a big key in this fight, as Gustafsson showed against Jones that he could go five rounds with anybody. If this matchup occurred two years ago, it would be a no-brainer on who was going to get the win. However, Johnson has come back to the UFC a new fighter, and is more than ready to show he can be a champion.

"Rumble" Johnson has 18 career victories, with 12 of them coming by way of knockout - all but two of his UFC wins have come by knockout. Johnson also has six wins by decision, including the unanimous decision victory against Phil Davis last April. Davis is a terrific athlete who is considered to be one of the best-conditioned athletes in the sport, and for Johnson to win a fight in that style showed he had put in the time to get in much better shape. While he does not land as many strikes as Gustafsson, he is much more accurate when attempting his punches (44% for Johnson, compared to 37% for Gustafsson).

Johnson is an extremely talented wrestler, who was a junior college national wrestling champion at Lassen Community College, but taking Gustafsson to the ground will be difficult, as Gustafsson defends 87% of his opponent’s takedown attempts. Johnson possesses as much power as anybody in the sport, but he will have to be ready from the beginning. The electricity and excitement in the building on Saturday night will give Gustafsson a huge advantage and it will be tough for Johnson to overcome that.

Phil Davis (13-2) vs. Ryan Bader (18-4)

Saturday, Jan. 24 – 10:30 p.m. ET

Light heavyweight fight

Sportsbook.ag Line: Davis -265, Bader +210

Find more UFC and MMA odds here and remember your 2nd bet is ALWAYS FREE.

Phil Davis looks to build off a big win as he takes on Ryan Bader with a chance to move up the light heavyweight ladder on Saturday night in Stockholm, Sweden.

Davis is considered one of the best athletes in the sport and he showed that in a unanimous decision victory against Glover Teixeira on Oct. 25. That win was huge for the 30-year-old from Pennsylvania, as he was coming off a tough decision loss to Anthony Johnson. That win got Johnson in a match where the winner will get a title fight, so Davis is very close to earning one of his own. He only has only two losses in his career, and both of them have been by decision. Davis' speed and quickness make it very difficult for his opponents to deliver the big knockout punch.

Ryan Bader, has won his past three fights, including a victory against Ovince St. Preux. The 31-year-old from Arizona is one of the stronger fighters in this weight class, and he will have a strength advantage against Davis. This is the type of fight where the tempo of this match will play a huge role, but the athleticism and speed of Davis could just be too much for Bader.

Davis enters this fight with 13 wins his career, as seven of them have come by decision. He also has four wins by submission, with the other two coming by knockout. While Bader is more known for his knockouts than Davis is, "Mr. Wonderful" will actually have an advantage over his opponent when it comes to landing significant strikes (2.93 for Davis, 2.64 for Bader). When Davis throws his punches, he is doing it more to wear out his opponent, as very few fighters in this class can keep up with him in the latter rounds. If he is able to pick his spots, Davis should be able to get the win. However, if it turns into a striking battle, then Bader has a great chance for the victory.

"Darth" Bader enters the Octagon with 19 wins, nine of them coming by way of decision. He also has seven wins by knockout and three coming by submission. While Bader will have a takedown advantage in this fight with a 3.84 takedown average, compared to 3.02 for Davis, those takedowns are more to try and wear his opponents out. Bader is definitely in great shape, but he has not yet faced someone like Davis. For Bader to have a great chance at getting the win, he will need to set the tone early by throwing a flurry of punches at Davis.

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter

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