UFC on Fox 4 Betting Odds
Carrie Stroup here with your UFC on Fox 4 betting odds, courtesy of Sportsbook.ag, which was offering up to $350 in FREE CASH for qualified customers who join here today using promo code CARRIE STROUP.
Lyoto Machida (17-3) vs. Ryan Bader (15-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Machida -370, Bader +280
In the second light heavyweight bout in Saturday’s UFC on FOX 4 main card, another pair of Brazilian and American fighters will brawl in Lyoto Machida and Ryan Bader.
Both of Bader’s career losses came in his past four fights, but they were both to top-notch opponents. His first defeat came to current light heavyweight champ Jon Jones, and the second loss was to former divisional champion Tito Ortiz. He has rebounded since then, though with solid wins—a KO over Jason Brilz and a unanimous decision against Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. Machida will look to be another former light heavyweight champ to beat him, and is a heavy favorite to do so. But he has not been in top form lately, with losses in three of his past four bouts, to Mauricio Rua, Jackson and most recently, Jones. This is his first bout since losing to Jones, and it is concerning he lost to Jackson while Bader cruised to victory against him.
“The Dragon” Machida’s loss to Jackson was a split decision, and a controversial one at that. A talented all-around fighter and expert karate artist, with those strikes making up the majority of his attack, Machida has won nine of his career bouts via decision, and six via knockout. And his most recent loss to Jones was a technical submission, guillotine choke, the same way Bader lost to him. A former divisional champ, who won the belt in 2009 from Rashad Evans and defended it once against Rua before giving it up to him in the next fight, Machida is understandably the favorite here.
While “Darth” Bader scored an easy win over Jackson, there is an asterisk next to it because Jackson didn’t make his weight. So, even though he holds wins over other good fighters such as Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Keith Jardine, he has yet to beat any of the truly elite fighters. This could be his chance, however, to earn a big win and give him a shot at the divisional title and a rematch against Jones down the road. The 29-year-old Bader is five years younger than Machida, and has a slight one-inch height advantage in this bout.
Mauricio Rua (20-6) vs. Brandon Vera (12-5)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Rua -400, Vera +300
Headlining UFC’s fourth go-around on FOX, light heavyweights Mauricio Rua and Brandon Vera will come to blows in the Octagon Saturday night in Los Angeles.
Rua enters this bout as a heavy favorite despite losing three of his past five fights. The first of those came in a title bout, challenging Lyoto Machida, who Rua then defeated in his next fight to gain the belt. But Jon Jones took it away with a TKO his next time out, and Rua then lost two fights later to Dan Henderson, after beating Forrest Griffin in between. Those five fights paint a pretty complete picture of Rua, who is among the elite MMA fighters but cannot always beat these other elite competitors. But, whereas Rua has at least beaten some top foes such as Machida and Griffin, Vera has struggled in all of his fights versus top-notch foes lately. Although coming off a win versus Eliot Marshall, Vera previously had lost to Jones and Randy Couture, with a no-contest against Thiago Silva mixed in there. Ultimately this appears to be just a tune-up fight for Rua, who should have his sights set on Jones again down the road.
Of Rua’s 20 career wins, 17 have been knockouts, just one sign of his dominant power in the Octagon. Although he is coming off a loss to Henderson, that defeat was nothing to be ashamed of; the five-round decision was UFC’s 2011 fight of the year. Now with over six months of rest to recuperate, his superb Muay Thai and Jiu Jitsu background should be able to overwhelm Vera, whose defensive capabilities have never been able to handle offensive attacks as precise as Rua’s. In this fight, the key for Rua must be to focus on the task at hand, and not be thinking of a potential rematch against Jones down the road.
Since becoming a light heavyweight in 2008, Vera is 3-3 with the no-contest. And the only marquee victory of his career came before that as a heavyweight, when he earned a TKO against Frank Mir in the first round of UFC 65, but that was all the way back in 2006. Vera also likes to win via knockout, with seven of his 12 career wins coming that way, and he must be patient in this fight while keeping Rua at bay with his excellent kicking skills. Vera is also a strong grappler, but if he surrenders any positioning, Rua will be quick to exploit it.
- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter
