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Here is our Texas Tech vs. Nevada prediction for Week 2 of the College Football season: A Texas Tech win will result in a bookie bloodbath! That's because well over 90 percent of the betting action was coming in on Texas Tech even with the line moving from -9 ½ to -10 ½ in some spots like betED.com
Despite the line move, one would question why the odds makers have not been a bit more aggressive. Let's face facts, Texas Tech vs. Nevada has been one of the most bet on games of the week and will likely be the most bet on game by day's end. The action on this game is right up there with the noon matchups and this one doesn't start until after 8 pm EST.
We here at Gambling911.com still see the line moving to -10 ½ at many of the online betting establishments. A number have moved the line that high over the week, but none have made it as high as -11. Our feeling is that Texas Tech does win big. If the odds makers thought otherwise and had a strong enough opinion on Nevada covering, they'd probably have just kept this one on -9 ½ to -10.
So while the rule of thumb is generally that the odds makers have an edge over the betting public in terms of win percentages, we are leaning more with the public here based on the 1 to 1 ½ point line move we have witnessed during the week. Make no mistake about it, typically a game of this magnitude with this much lopsided action would go the way of the bookies (a la a Nevada cover by 9 or less). Again, we just don't see it.
Now the odds makers have been much more aggressive with the OVER on this game, bringing the number up from 64 ½ to 68 in an effort to balance the action, yet that hasn't helped any as more than 95 percent of the action was still on the OVER 68 heading into Saturday afternoon.
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Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
