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South Carolina vs. Kentucky opened at most places as a pick (even odds). Over the course of this week, the line has been adjusted to South Carolina -3 as the away favorite though some books still had the line at -2 ½. Bookmaker.com was one of the online sports books that had South Carolina was odds of -2 ½.
Sagarin's calculations suggest that Kentucky should be around a -8 favorite and that number doesn't quite jive with us. Oddsmakers have essentially ignored the Sagarin line formula here....oh, and for good reason: The Gamecocks have won 8 of the last 8 in this series dating back to October 2000. The ATS record is 6-2 however. Those two ATS wins were with Kentucky as an 8 ½ or larger underdog we should point out.
One stat that goes against the Gamecocks: they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games. The Wildcats, however, are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, and that happens to be a significant stat coming into a situation where you have been beaten at home 8 times straight by your opponent.
South Carolina is also 11-4 ATS over the last three seasons playing against a winning team. That is another significant stat.
This game cries out South Carolina and if you are going to bet the dog, BetOnline.com had the Gamecocks at +3 still (as of Friday evening).
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Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
