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We have two early 2008 Week 9 NFL predictions.
The home team in the Ravens vs. Browns series has won 7 of 10 in this series. Baltimore has won 6 of the last 10. While the ATS record shouldn't matter too much here, Cleveland has won 6 of the last 10 ATS including 5 of the last 6. The last home team loss was a 3 point overtime win by the Browns in 2007. Oh, and while we commented that the ATS record shouldn't matter being that Cleveland was only a -1 ½ favorite, the previous home loss was by just a single point in Cleveland. The reality is that the home team has a very strong advantage in this matchup.
The Ravens are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games and are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Granted, Cleveland stands to be at .500 should they win against the Ravens this weekend.
One of the most telling stats is that the Browns are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games and they are also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
Gambling911.com will be picking the Cleveland Browns to win this one by -1 ½ points as the favorites at BetUS.com.
The folks at BetUS.com are predicting victory for the Denver Broncos this coming Sunday, albeit by the narrowest of margins. We say "hogwash"!
While Denver has always enjoyed a better advantage at home compared to most teams in the league (mainly because of the high altitude), in this series against Miami since 1986 the Broncos have only gone 1 of 5 at home. It gets worse. Miami has won 4 of the last 5 against the Broncos overall. The Dolphins have won 7 of the last 9 head-to-heads. The last time Miami played in Denver, they lost by only 3 points. They won the prior year in Denver by 2 points. The only other Denver win was a blowout back in 1999.
The Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Broncos are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS loss, 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 vs. AFC, 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 home games, 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 games overall and 1-8-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record, although Miami is considered better than a .500 team by many.
Gambling911.com believes that BetUS.com will be wrong here. The trends and past history suggest strongly that Miami can cover the +3 points in this one.
Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher
