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MLB Line, Total Shifts, Consensus Plays and Betting Analysis June 23

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Jun/23/2019

Gambling911.com has your MLB line, total shifts and consensus plays betting analysis for Sunday June 23, 2019.  A must read prior to placing your MLB wagers. Scroll down for all of today's game previews


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Biggest consensus

Twins - 76% - second day straight they are the top consensus play.

Red Sox - 72%

Diamondbacks - 72%

Braves - 72%

Totals

COMING SHORTLY

Significant Line/Total Shifts

Atlanta - -135 to -155

Twins - -170 to -149

Highlighted Betting Previews

Twins-Royals - We won't dare jump on the Royals, however, do consider NOT betting the high consensus play Twins or, if you were going to pull the trigger on KC, this might not be the worst idea in the world based on line movement alone. 

Despite Minnesota having the most backing today, books have dropped the line from -170 to -149 or 20 cents.  That is a huge move in the opposite direction of where people are betting.

It's not our play but we are certainly going to be intrigued by the outcome here.

The Twins were the biggest consenus pick yesterday but and won but the line was moving along with the action.  Michael Pineda we say could be due for a bad outing.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Twins RH Michael Pineda (4-3, 4.76 ERA) vs. Royals RH Homer Bailey (6-6, 4.82)

Pineda has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts, including two in a row in which he's yielded just one. The 30-year-old has not surrendered a home run in each of his last four outings after serving up a total of eight over his previous four. Left fielder Alex Gordon is just 4-for-22 with eight strikeouts against Pineda, who is 5-5 with a 3.84 ERA in 10 career starts versus Kansas City.

Bailey struggled mightily in the second half of May and opened June with a clunker at Texas, but he is 2-0 with a 1.37 ERA over his last three starts. He struck out six and yielded five hits in a season-high 7 2/3 innings of a 9-0 win at Seattle on Tuesday. The 33-year-old opened his season with five innings of three-run ball against the Twins and has a 6.10 ERA in two career matchups.

Blue Jays-Red Sox - We have a free pick today on this game - Boston has really been playing well of late, winning eight of their last ten overall, though losing Saturday night.  They are 42-35 and certainly a superior team compared to the Blue Jays, who have dropped six of their last ten and are 27-49 on the season.

Boston had won nine of the last ten games versus Toronto prior to Saturday evening.

With seven of the last ten meetings resulting in ten or more runs, finding a book that still offers a the total of 9.5 is key.  As of Midnight, Heritage Sports appeared to be the only book still offering the 9.5.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Blue Jays RH Marcus Stroman (4-9, 3.23 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH Rick Porcello (5-6, 4.31)

Stroman posted a quality start last time out, allowing three runs on four hits - two homers - against the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday but suffered the loss in a 3-1 final. The Duke product surrendered three or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight turns but also served up seven homers in that span. Stroman issued a season-high six walks against Boston on May 21 but limited the damage to one run - a solo homer by Mitch Moreland - in six innings to earn a win.

Porcello is coming off a dominant outing at Minnesota on Monday, when he scattered four hits and struck out eight over seven scoreless innings to earn a win. The former Cy Young Award winner owns 23 strikeouts and three walks in 24 1/3 innings this month and turned in a quality start in five of his last seven outings. Porcello had little trouble at Toronto on May 22, allowing one run and three hits in six innings without factoring in the decision.

Toronto has scored five or more runs in seven of their last ten games while allowing five or more in seven as well.

Boston has scored five or more runs in seven of their last ten games as well while allowing that many runs or more in four over that span.

With neither starter among the best their respective teams have to offer, and both coming off wins, Gambling911.com will be on the OVER 9.5, no longer available at Heritage but that's when we got it.  Everywhere was at 10 now.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

Our Free Picks Record June 18

2019 MLB Record: 17-11-2 (60.8%) - No Plays Over -160

2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)

2018-19 NBA Record: 7-5 (58%)

2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)

2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)

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