MLB Betting Lines – Free Pick for August 28

Yesterday we got slaughtered with our lone pick on the Yankees/Lions UNDER.  Our August record is now 20-15.  Our free pick for the evening appears after today’s trends.

Pitcher

Tampa Bay's Jeremy Hellickson is 8-4 when starting against Baltimore with an ERA of 3.19 and a WHIP of 1.075. The UNDER is 11-4 in those games.

Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco has struggled against the White Sox, going 0-4 with a 7.12 ERA.  The White Sox John Danks has not fared much better against Cleveland.  He is 5-10 when starting against them with an ERA of 5.21 and a WHIP of 1.421.

Free Pick

Rays vs. Orioles UNDER 8 - The Rays RH Jeremy Hellickson (1-2, 2.61 ERA) has yielded two or fewer runs in five of his seven starts since returning from elbow surgery.  He has limited opponents to a .224 batting average.  As noted above, he is 8-4 when starting against Baltimore with an ERA of 3.19 and a WHIP of 1.075. The UNDER is 11-4 in those games.

The UNDER is 7-0-2 in Hellickson's last 9 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.

The Orioles RH Bud Norris (11-8, 3.91) just saw his three-game win streak come to an abrupt end.  He is 1-2 in five appearances (four starts) with a 3.96 ERA against Tampa Bay.

The UNDER is 9-3-1 in Baltimore’s last 13 games overall.

The UNDER is 9-3-1 in Orioles last 13 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5, 13-5-1 in Orioles last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 6-2-1 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.

- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com