Free College Football Picks – 2014 Week 4

Gambling911.com has your free College Football picks for Week 4 of the 2014 regular season courtesy of our friends at Sportsbook.ag.  Place your 1^st bet, get your 2^nd bet free up to $100 here.

Following today’s free picks, we also have some bonus coverage for two of the day’s top games courtesy of Gambling911.com Senior Reporter Carrie Stroup.

Play on Indiana +13.5 – 90% of the betting action is on Missouri at some books yet the line keeps moving down.  Hmmmmm.

Yeah we get it.  The Hoosiers have had a terrible time covering the spread coming into this game and they were destroyed by Missouri last year. 

Indiana comes to Memorial Stadium boasting the No. 3 rushing attack in the nation, however.  And that has to count for something, right?  The oddsmakers must think so.

This is a 4 pm EST game.

Sagarin has Missouri able to win by 13 points.

The following previews are courtesy of Sportsbook.ag and are not to be factored into the Gambling911.com picks record.

CLEMSON TIGERS (1-1) at FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (2-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Florida State -14.5 & 60

Opening Line & Total: Seminoles -21 & 60.5

No. 1 Florida State, the defending BCS National Champion, kicks off its ACC season on Saturday when its hosts No. 22 Clemson, but will do so without Heisman Trophy-winning QB Jameis Winston for the first two quarters.

Winston was suspended for the first half of this game after shouting obscenities in the student union earlier this week, meaning little-used sophomore QB Sean Maguire (26 career passes, 2 TD, 2 INT) will be under center for the first 30 minutes of this ballgame. The Tigers opened the season against a very tough opponent in Georgia, and were dominated by Heisman hopeful, HB Todd Gurley, who gained 293 all-purpose yards as Clemson suffered a 45-21 loss as 9.5-point underdogs. The Tigers took out their frustrations the next week against 34-point underdog South Carolina State as they scored their most points in 33 years with a 73-7 shellacking. They piled up an amazing 735 yards of offense while gaining 11.1 yards per pass and holding their opponent to a putrid 44 yards of offense. Florida State has not been as dominant over its first two victories as most would have expected, failing to cover the spread in both games. Oklahoma State got to within six points late in the fourth quarter in the Seminoles opening game, but FSU still managed to hold on by a score of 37-31 as an 18.5-point favorite. In its most recent win, Florida State was a 56.5-point favorite against The Citadel, an FCS team, allowing its opponent to rush for 250 yards in the contest while gaining 494 yards of offense themselves and finishing the game with a 37-12 victory. The Seminoles have totaled 100 points against Clemson over the past two seasons, winning each of the games SU and going 1-1 ATS. Last year this was barely a game as Florida State defeated its conference foes 51-14 and outgained the Tigers 444-203 through the air while forcing four turnovers. But since 2007, Clemson is a solid 5-2 ATS (3-4 SU) in this matchup. Bettors should know that the Tigers are 40-22 ATS (65%) after two consecutive games where they committed one or fewer turnovers since 1992, while the Seminoles have gone 14-4 ATS (78%) as a home favorite of 17.5 to 21 points over the same timeframe. On the injury front, Clemson has no significant players expected to miss this game, while Florida State may have some key defenders out as DB P.J Williams (hamstring) and DL Eddie Goldman (leg) are both questionable. 

Clemson’s offensive numbers are a little fudged as they opened the year against a tough defensive team in Georgia and then faced a poor FCS team the following week. Nonetheless, the club has put up 47.0 PPG in the two contests and has thrown for 335 YPG (16^th in nation). QB Cole Stoudt (446 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) threw for 302 yards and a touchdown against South Carolina State before letting younger players get an opportunity to participate in the blowout. Stoudt has hit on 63.3% of his passes so far while gaining 7.4 YPA. There is no clear-cut starter in the backfield for this team, as seven players have already had at least nine rushing attempts on the year. HB D.J. Howard (71 yards, 2 TD) leads the team with 16 of his own attempts while freshman HB Wayne Gallman has gained 82 yards on 11 attempts (7.5 YPC) and HB C.J. Davidson (47 yards) has a touchdown in each of the first two contests. Replacing Sammy Watkins in the passing game will be impossible, but WR Mike Williams (7 rec, 171 yards) hopes he can alleviate some of the pain, and will be helped out by the electric WR Artavis Scott who has 205 yards and two touchdowns on a mere eight catches (25.6 avg). DE Vic Beasley (6 tackles, 2 sacks) is following up his 13-sack season last year with a sack in each of the first two games, as he leads a defense that has allowed a meager 251.5 YPG (6^th in FBS) to their opponents in 2014. The front four looks to wreak havoc on the inexperienced quarterback it will face in the first half.

The Seminoles have not looked as explosive as they did last year when they had the second-best scoring offense in the nation, putting up only 37.0 PPG over their first two wins while gaining 327 YPG in the air (20^th in nation). Last season’s best player, QB Jameis Winston (626 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT) has not looked like a Heisman winner so far, especially after throwing two picks in the season opener, a close battle against Oklahoma State. While FSU figures to establish the run when QB Sean Maguire is under center, remember that Winston torched the Tigers in their win last season, throwing for 444 yards and 3 TD and 1 INT while also adding a score on the ground. HB Karlos Williams (132 yards, 1 TD) has been the workhorse in the backfield, as change-of-pace RBs Mario Pender and Dalvin Cook have 136 yards on 23 attempts (5.9 YPC) with two touchdowns combined. WR Rashad Greene (15 rec, 283 yards, 1 TD) and TE Nick O’Leary (8 rec, 79 yards, 1 TD) make a tough receiving combo who are padding their draft status this year and plan on playing Sundays next year. The Florida State defense has allowed 21.5 PPG and 343 YPG of offense through their first two contests while being led by playmakers DL Mario Edwards Jr. (4 tackles, 1 sack) and LB Terrance Smith (17 tackles).

FLORIDA GATORS (2-0) at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (3-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Totlal: Alabama -14.5 & 50.5

Opening Line & Total: Crimson Tide -16 & 52

No. 3 Alabama looks to stay undefeated when it hosts Florida in a classic SEC matchup on Saturday afternoon.

Florida is certainly not as dominant as it once was, but has kicked off the 2014 season with two consecutive SU wins (1-1 ATS) by gaining at least 530 yards of total offense in both victories. Their opener was a cakewalk, as they routed Eastern Michigan 65-0 as 41-point favorites at home, but did not fare so well in their second contest against Kentucky. It took three overtimes to defeat the 18-point underdog Wildcats, as the Gators eventually held off their pesky opponents by a score of 36-30 at home. They gained 532 yards of offense in the victory, including running for 237 yards, and forced three turnovers. Alabama has opened the year with three consecutive SU wins, but has yet to cover a spread, going 0-2-1 ATS while being a favorite of at least 22 points in all three games. Over the past two contests against Florida Atlantic and Southern Miss, the Crimson Tide have given up a combined 12 points and 408 total yards. In their most recent game, a 52-12 win over the 45.5-point underdog Golden Eagles, Alabama averaged 7.5 yards per play and smoked their opponent for 333 yards on the ground. These programs have not met since 2011, but the Crimson Tide hold a three-game winning streak in the matchup (both SU and ATS) while dominating the last time they met up in a 38-10 win as a 4-point favorite on the road. The scores in the past four meetings in Tuscaloosa have all been one-sided too, with the Tide prevailing 34-7, 31-3, 32-13 and 31-6. Bettors should be aware of a few telling trends, including the fact that Florida is 11-2 ATS (85%) after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992, while ‘Bama is 12-3 ATS (80%) over the same timeframe in home games after gaining at least 7.25 yards per play in its previous contest. The only injury to keep an eye on this week is that of WR DeAndrew White (shoulder) who is listed as questionable for Alabama.

Florida has put up elite offensive numbers through its first two contests, tallying 345.5 YPG in the air (12^th in FBS) and 248 YPG on the ground (25^th in nation) while scoring 50.5 PPG. QB Jake Driskel (543 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT) has looked solid after suffering a broken leg last year, as he has already had more than 40 attempts in each game (6.2 YPA) while going 25-for-43 (58%) with 293 yards and 3 TD (1 INT) against Kentucky last weekend. The rushing attack has been very efficient behind HB Matt Jones (221 yards, 2 TD) who tallied 156 yards (5.4 YPC) and a touchdown against Kentucky. HB Kelvin Taylor (123 yards, 2 TD) has provided a nice change of pace and scored twice in the team’s season opener. WR Demarcus Robinson has been dominant as the team’s No. 1 target in the passing game with 339 yards (16.1 avg) and 3 TD. The sophomore was untouchable against the Wildcats, as he racked up 216 yards and pulled in two scores among his 14 receptions (14.4 avg). DL Dante Fowler Jr. (9 tackles, 1 sack) is one of the elite linemen in the nation, and hopes he can help the Gators and their defense, which has allowed 287.5 YPG (15^th in FBS), slow down a tough Alabama offense.

Alabama once again brings to the table a lethal combination of passing (298 YPG, 33^rd in FBS) and rushing (270.3 YPG, 17^th in FBS) that has helped the club drop 42.0 PPG on opponents. QB Blake Sims (646 pass yards, 10.1 YPA, 4 TD, 1 INT) has been great as the starter, while throwing all his touchdowns and no interceptions over the past two victories while adding to the run game with 102 rushing yards (7.3 YPC) and two scores. There will also be no worries if Sims goes down, as backup QB Jake Coker (248 yards, 1 TD) has already proven he can lead under center if he's needed. The Crimson Tide have incredible depth at the running back position with HB T.J. Yeldon (225 yards, 5.8 YPC, 2 TD) leading the group. He has had less of a workload over the past two games (16 attempts) with them being blowouts, but he showed what he can do over a full contest in the opener, going for 126 yards on 23 attempts (5.5 YPC) and 2 TD against West Virginia. HBs Derrick Henry (209 yards, 1 TD) and Kenyan Drake (97 yards, 4 TD) are behind Yeldon on the depth chart, but each hold tons of talent and are dominant when in the game. WR Amari Cooper has 33 of the team’s 68 catches in 2014 while getting 454 yards (13.8 avg) and two touchdowns. He has had over 130 yards in each of the three victories while twice grabbing double-digit receptions. The stout defense has allowed a mere 11.7 PPG (10^th in nation) while giving up just 267 YPG (10^th in FBS). This side of the ball is led by the tandem of LB Trey DePriest (10 tackles) and DB Landon Collins (24 tackles) who both expect to play on Sundays come 2015.   

- Carrie Stroup, Gambling911.com Senior Reporter