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Prediction Market Bets on Sarah Palin Withdrawing from Republican Ticket

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:
Sep/02/2008
Sarah Palin

Intrade.com is one of the first prediction markets betting on whether Sarah Palin will drop out of the Presidential race as Republican candidate John McCain's running mate.

Over 1200 people had already bet on this offering at Intrade. Just over 10 percent of these gamblers believe that Palin will in fact drop out.

The controversies surrounding Alaska Governor Sarah Palin seem to have little effect on the McCain campaign, at least exiting the Labor Day Weekend where Obama was still listed at -195 odds of becoming the next US President at Bookmaker.com while McCain was at +155 odds (with a payout potential of $155 for every $100 bet).

Palin has undergone intense public scrutiny since being named McCain's running mate. On Monday, it was confirmed that her unwed 17 year old daughter had been impregnated by a self-proclaimed "f**king Redneck" while the Governor herself is in the middle of a scandal surrounding alleged pressuring to have her state trooper ex-brother-in-law fired from the force.

Prediction markets have been incredibly accurate in recent years as they pertain to political events. Just a week before Joe Biden was selected as Barack Obama's Democratic running mate, Bookmaker.com CEO, Mickey Richardson, told Gambling911.com it would happen. He also predicted that McCain will be the next President of the United States. That prediction may be a bit premature since more accurate results are usually not recognized until just a few weeks prior to any election.

"It's going to be John McCain," Richardson insisted, even though Bookmaker.com still has Obama as the favorite to win.

Two weeks ago, Bookmaker.com accepted a $20,000 bet on McCain to be the next US President.

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Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com

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