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Odds on Sarah Palin Withdrawing as Republican Vice Presidential Nominee

Written by:
Payton
Published on:
Sep/30/2008

The odds of Sarah Palin withdrawing as the Republican Vice Presidential nominee were especially strong immediately following candidate John McCain picking the Alaska Governor. But following a rousing speech at the Republican convention that witnessed McCain's poll numbers surge in just a matter of days, all betting on this option came to a near halt.

Now the chances of this occurring are back in the spotlight and people are betting on a Palin pull out prior to Election Day. The chances of this happening were back to around 12 percent at online prediction market intrade.com. Compare that with Democratic running mate Joe Biden whose chances of pulling out were set at 5.2 percent. Talk that he might step down in favor of Hillary Clinton has since died down now that Democratic Presidential hopeful Barack Obama is firmly back in the lead.

Betting on this event have been fueled by recent interviews of Sarah Palin conducted by Katie Couric of the CBS Evening News.

"In just a month, Sarah Palin has gone from being the darling of the GOP to a major question mark hanging over John McCain's candidacy at a critical moment in the presidential campaign," writes Linda Feldmann of the Christian Science Monitor.

One by one, conservative columnists such as David Frum, David Brooks, and Kathleen Parker have come out against Palin, calling her in effect not ready for prime time. Among voters, polls show that initial enthusiasm for Palin has slipped, though the overall race remains competitive.

Still, the willingness of conservative opinion leaders to state their reservations out loud is striking, and may indicate growing doubts among Republican rank and file. "I think it does reflect thinking that is maybe said quietly," says GOP pollster Whit Ayres, who remains a fan of Palin. But all is not lost, he says. "The proof is in the pudding, and we see the pudding on Thursday night."

Tacitly acknowledging criticism that she's been diminished in part by an overly protective media shield, Sarah Palin will take a more forward-leaning approach and do additional interviews in the weeks ahead, a top aide told Jonathan Martin of Politico.com.

"She's seen the reviews and heard the criticism, but she's a fighter," said this aide. "And now she's in a fighting mood."

Palin will be making the rounds of conservative talk radio.

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Payton O'Brien, Gambling911.com Senior Editor

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