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According to a Twitter study, 54% of America's states would pick Gavin Newsom to be the Democratic nominee should President Joe Biden back out of the 2024 race.
Our marketing team conducted a survey based on geotagged Twitter/X data since the debate last Thursday. The study tracked tweets, hashtags and direct keyword phrases about who the U.S. would want to potentially replace Biden in the 2024 Presidential Election.
For example, it collected all tweets that had phrases such as "replace Joe Biden" or "get rid of Biden" that also mentioned a specific politician or political figure such as Gavin Newsom, Michelle Obama, Kamala Harris, etc.
In addition, hashtags such as #NewsomeForPresident or #Newsome2024, #MichelleObama2024, etc. were also analyzed in the sampling.
More than 240,000 tweets were tracked in total. The potential replacement candidate with the most support in each state subsequently "won" that state.
As you can see from the map, two names dominate: Gavin Newsom and Michelle Obama. Here's the state-by-state breakdown:
Gavin Newsom - 27 states
Michelle Obama - 18 states
Kamala Harris - 2 states
Gretchen Whitmer - 1 state
Josh Shapiro - 1 state
Pete Buttigieg - 1 state
No other politician, political figure or celebrity beat out one of those six in any state.
On the odds side of the politics spectrum, we wanted to let you know that while Biden remains odds-on to be the Democrat nominee, money has been pouring in on Kamala Harris today.
A consensus appears to be building that, if Biden were to withdraw, Harris would be a strong favorite to replace him as the nominee.
Trump’s presidential odds also improved on the same news. You can find the odds movement below.
Presidential Odds Movement
Trump -185 (improved from -175)
Biden +375 (worsened from +350)
Harris +700 (improved from +1400)
Newsom +1200 (improved from +1000)
Obama +1400 (improved from +1200)
Whitmer +1600 (improved from +1800)
Democratic Nominee Odds Movement
Biden -160 (worsened from -200)
Harris +275 (improved from +550)
Newsom +800 (worsened from +600)
Whitmer +1000 (improved from +1800)
Obama +1200 (worsened from +900)
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