Gaddafi to no Longer be Leader of Libya by Year’s End Says Prediction Market

Written by:
Gilbert Horowitz
Published on:
Feb/23/2011
Gaddafi

The online prediction market of intrade.com has Libya strongman Muammar Gaddafi (whose name, we might add, is spelled about a dozen different ways depending on the media outlet) no longer in charge by year’s end.  Some 75 percent of those betting on this market believe that Gaddafi’s days are numbered.  And while the official bet gives the Arab world’s longest serving dictator another 10 months, there is a chance he could fall from power within the next few weeks, if not days. 

Gaddafi has served as leader of Libya since a coup in 1969.  On Tuesday, following days of unrest and bloodshed, the flamboyant leader appeared defiant, speaking on national TV and delivering a rambling speech that lasted more than an hour.  Among the many highlights, Gaddafi insisted he would remain in Libya and die a martyr.  He also went on to suggest that the “young” protestors were mostly under the influence of drugs and that they would be systematically executed. 

Much of the Eastern portion of Libya is reportedly now under the control of civilians.  As of Wednesday, Gaddafi was struggling to maintain control of the Western part of the country, which includes its largest city, Tripoli.   Some 300 people have thus far died in the bloody uprising. 

Steven Gjerstad (Purdue) in his paper "Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium," has shown that prediction market prices are very close to the mean belief of market participants if the agents are risk averse and the distribution of beliefs is spread out (as with a normal distribution, for example). Justin Wolfers (Wharton) and Eric Zitzewitz (Dartmouth) have obtained similar results, and also include some analysis of prediction market data, in their paper "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities” In practice, the prices of binary prediction markets have proven to be closely related to actual frequencies of events in the real world.  (source:  Wikipedia)

Over the last few weeks, Bookmaker.com had offered odds on which Middle Eastern and/or Arab nation would experience uprisings after Egypt.  Initial odds had Libya somewhat of a long shot with 5/1 odds.  North America’s oldest established online gambling website had Israel with even shorter odds at 4/1.

Bookmaker.com has since ceased taking bets on this market while intrade.com continues to offer wagering on the next leader to fall by year’s end.

Some other potential casualties include Bahrain’s Prince Khalifa at 62 percent, Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen at 49 percent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran at 16 percent and that country’s Supreme Leader at 15 percent. 

- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com

Politics News

Worst Kept Secret: Biden 2020, Latest Odds

Worst Kept Secret: Biden 2020, Latest Odds

Former US Vice President Joe Biden has "almost" made it official.  He's running for President for 2020.

Bernie Sanders Moves to the Top of the Pack

Bernie Sanders Moves to the Top of the Pack

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is now favored to win the Democratic nomination for the 2020 U.S. Presidential race following a highly rated Fox News Town Hall.

Political Betting Markets Now Favor Buttigieg as Biden Falls Out of Favor

Political Betting Markets Now Favor Buttigieg as Biden Falls Out of Favor

Second woman steps forward to say former VP touched her inappropriately

Brexit Hell: Latest Odds

Brexit Hell: Latest Odds

Brexit exit dates in 2019 at 1/10 odds most books

Brexit - No 2nd EU Referendum Say Oddsmakers

Brexit - No 2nd EU Referendum Say Oddsmakers

Theresa May was set to rule out a no-deal Brexit to stave off rebellion and avoid a rebellion by members of parliament, who are threatening to grab control of the divorce process, The Sun and Daily Mail newspapers reported.

Syndicate