Betting Market Believes US Supreme Court Will Rule 9-0 Against Trump in Immunity Case

Written by:
Gilbert Horowitz
Published on:

The gambling public has favored all nine Supreme Court Justices ruling 9-0 against former U.S. president Donald Trump in his presidential immunity case.  The odds of this happening were set at +258, followed closely by an 8-1 ruling at +270 and a 7-2 ruling at +285. 

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6-3 against Trump comes in at much longer odds of +1329 and 5-4 in Trump's favor at +1900.

The odds are not in Trump's favor with a 5-4 decision going his way at +2400 odds and 6-3 in his favor at +3300 odds.

Trump is claiming absolute immunity from prosecution over alleged election interference while in office.

A majority of the justices did not appear to embrace the claim of absolute immunity that would stop special counsel Jack Smith’s prosecution of Trump on charges he conspired to overturn his 2020 election loss to Democrat Joe Biden, and this is reflected in the current betting market numbers.

Conservative Justice Samuel Alito said that “whatever we decide is going to apply to all future presidents.”

Manifold claims to be a very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability.  By using the combined wisdom of thousands of users, they outperform real-money platforms. For example, in the 2022 US midterm elections, Manifold outperformed all prediction markets and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance.

Currently BetUS is offering a wide variety of political bets for real money and is available to those in the U.S. and much of the rest of the world.  Scroll Down..


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