Ole Miss Line Drops From -4 to 3 Despite Seeing 70 Percent of Action

Written by:
Mary Montgomery
Published on:
Nov/03/2023

Texas A&M plays Ole Miss and will come to town as a +3 dog.  Their 5-3 Straight Up record is not quite as impressive as the Rebels with just one loss on the season.

Ole Miss is also 6-2 Against The Spread.

This is just one of many big impactful games being played at the 12 pm ET hour.

Jaxson Dart threw for one touchdown, ran for another and Mississippi scored on five consecutive first-half possessions as the Rebels defeated Vanderbilt 33-7 on Saturday night.

“So often you can be flat or get caught in a trap game at home against an opponent that has struggled, but this is good,” Kiffin said. “We’re 7-1 after starting 3-1. We’re 19-2 in the last 21 home games. That’s pretty cool.”

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Texas A&M is also coming off a win.  They beat South Carolina 30-17.

Head to head since 2021, Ole Miss has beaten the Aggies by 3 and 10 points, respectively.

Max Johnson threw for 249 yards and a touchdown, snapping a two-game skid.

“Happy for our guys to get a win," Aggies' coach Jimbo Fisher said. "Handled the things we had to handle. Wasn’t perfect but did really good things.”

Ole Miss was seeing 70% of the spread action at -3.  This one has actually come down of the -3.5 and had even hit -2.5 at Bookmaker for a bit (1:30 pm to 5:30 pm Friday). 2.5 was not common.  Sagarin gives us a number of 3.3, putting this one right on the money.

The 3/3.5/4 line range with an accurate number tends to bode well for the dog.

Pete Fiatak of CollegeFootballNews.com explains that the defense for Texas A&M "has been a killer".  Thus, their record might be a bit deceptive.  Sagarin has this team at No. 16.

"The defensive front is a wall against the run, the pass defense leads the SEC, and the team is No. 1 in the nation in sacks and tackles for loss."

He adds: "Texas A&M’s D will keep this close, and there will be moments for both teams when the opportunities will be there to take over. It’ll be a one score game deep in the fourth quarter with the Ole Miss offense able to do a little bit more helped by a few key A&M turnovers."

- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com

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