Odds for Wednesday Debate Following Big Dems Win on Tuesday

Written by:
Gilbert Horowitz
Published on:

It's a big week for U.S. politics with key elections held Tuesday and the third GOP debate Wednesday.  Tuesday's results did not exactly go according to plan for Republicans.


Online oddsmaker, SportsBetting.ag, had odds for the Kentucky and Mississippi Gubernatorial races, as well as odds for each governor's margin of victory at the polls with both of those state governors winning handily.

Abortion rights advocates won major victories in two red states, Ohio and Kentucky as well as the Commonwealth of Virginia, which has turned blue in recent years but currently has a Republican Governor.  Democrats were projected to take control of the state legislature after campaigning heavily on preserving access.

Additionally, there are GOP debate bets available for topics such as speaking time, buzz words, Trump and more with NBC broadcasting this event Wednesday evening.

 “If I were an antiabortion politician, I’d be scared,” Tresa Undem, a public opinion researcher who studies abortion and supports abortion rights, told the Washington Post.

Hannah Knowles, Caroline Kitchener of the Post wrote:

The most direct test of abortion politics came in Ohio, where abortion rights supporters entered Tuesday optimistic that a ballot measure called Issue 1 would pass. Ohioans had already weighed in on a referendum viewed a proxy for the abortion fight, voting in August against a proposal that would have boosted abortion opponents’ chances on Issue 1 by making it harder to amend the state constitution.

The odds were released in the wake of shock poll numbers that show former U.S. President Donald Trump is now leading current U.S. President Joe Biden in five of six critical swing states.

The New York Times and Siena College conducted the recent poll.

The poll shows that Trump is ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, with Biden ahead in Wisconsin.

Trump now leads by an average of 48% to 44% in the six states, the polls showed.


Mississippi Governor

Tate Reeves (R)             1/15

Brandon Presley (D)      6/1

Note: Reeves' odds were 1/9 on November 1 so they have increased greatly. The 1/15 odds equate to a 93.8% implied probability that Reeves will be elected.


Mississippi Governor - Margin of Reeves Victory

Over/Under      6.5%


Kentucky Governor

Andy Beshear (D)                      2/9

Daniel Cameron (R)                   3/1

Note: Beshear's odds were 1/15 on November 1 so they have decreased greatly. The 2/9 (-450) odds equate to an 81.8% implied probability that Beshear will be elected.


Kentucky Governor - Margin of Beshear Victory

Over/Under      4.5%


Philadelphia Mayor - Margin of Parker Victory

Over/Under      44.5%


Ohio Issue 1 Referendum (Reproductive Rights) - Margin of "Yes" Victory

Over/Under 22.5%


Republican Debate


Who will say "Trump" first?                 

Chris Christie                2/1

Nikki Haley                   2/1

Vivek Ramaswamy        5/2

Ron DeSantis                9/2

Tim Scott                      8/1


Who will have the most speaking time?           

Vivek Ramaswamy        3/1

Nikki Haley                   5/2

Ron DeSantis                5/2

Chris Christie                8/1

Tim Scott                      8/1


Which word will be said most?            

Biden                           2/1

Hamas                          2/1

Southern Border           5/2

Israel                            4/1

Fentanyl                       20/1

Woke                           20/1


Who will be declared debate winner?              

Ron DeSantis                1/1

Nikki Haley                   3/1

Vivek Ramaswamy        3/1

Tim Scott                      6/1

Chris Christie                25/1


Which words will be said during debate?

Netanyahu                    1/2

Hezbollah                     2/3

Sanctuary City               1/1

Obama                         3/2

Bible/Biblical                2/1

Radical Islam/Islamic     2/1

Zelensky                       2/1

Nazi                              2/1

DOJ                              2/1

Woke Mind Virus          2/1

Bibi                              5/2

Defund                         5/2

Iraq                              3/1

Climate change             4/1

Deep State                    4/1

Impeach/Impeachment 5/1

Elon Musk (both/either) 7/1

Net Zero                       7/1

Multipolar                    8/1


Next Candidate to Withdraw

Asa Hutchinson             2/3

Tim Scott                      3/1

Doug Burgum               4/1

Chris Christie                10/1

Ron DeSantis                25/1

Vivek Ramaswamy        30/1

Donald Trump Sr.          50/1

Nikki Haley                   50/1

- Frank Doyle, Gambling911.com

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