Written by :
Published on :
The USC vs. Oregon State game is one of the most bet on events of the week as this will be a Thursday night game. The USC Trojans opened as a -24 road favorite and this line has since moved up to -25 and -25 ½ at BetUS.com.
It probably should come as no surprise that nearly 91 percent of early betting action was going USC's way.
A review of the line on this game shows that there could be as much as a 6 point overlay. The problem: Recent games where USC is a double digit road favorite have managed to cover.
Oregon State won its last game at home as a +10 ½ underdog against USC. They have also lost by more than 25 points in this series only once over their last 10 games since 1997.
The Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 4-1 in their last 5 road games as well as 5-0 ATS after allowing under 20 points. They are, however, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on turf.
The Oregon Beavers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games on turf, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, including 5-1 at home against a team with a winning record. They are, however, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
There are plenty of indications to suggest that Oregon can cover the 25 points here, but USC looked invincible against Ohio State for whom they beat by a margin of 32 points at home.
We like the turf discrepancies and past history between these two teams when determining whether Oregon State can cover here but exercise caution. The books will certainly want an Oregon State cover over USC to be sure.
-----
Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com
