Free Baseball Pick Saturday July 9, 2010

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The New York Mets host the Atlanta Braves in a National League East battle. The Mets are trying to chase down the Braves for 1st place in the division prior to reaching the All-Star Break. The Braves are -114 favorites this afternoon, with a total of 7.5 runs expected. FOX will televise this game starting at 4:10 EDT.

New York has dominated the Braves this season, winning 4 of the 5 matchups. New York has been rather inconsistent of late however, and it's cost them in the standings. The Mets are currently 3 games behind their opponent today in the National League East division. New York is +8.56 and +24.75 units both SU and on the RL respectively this year. P Michael Pelfrey will make the home start tonight, as he is an impressive 10-3 SU with an ERA of 3.39 and a WHIP of 1.36 this season. The Mets are 21-7 in their last 28 home games with the total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. The Mets are 10-4 in their last 14 games against the National League East. New York is 9-4 in their last 13 home games against a right-handed starter. New York is 7-21 in their last 28 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Mets are 7-1 in Pelfrey's last 8 starts as a home underdog. The Mets are 4-1 in Pelfrey's last 5 home starts against a team with a winning record. New York is 5-2 in Pelfrey's last 7 starts against the National League East.

The Mets are 14-3 in their last 17 games as a home underdog. The Under is 13-3 in their last 16 home games against a team with a winning record.

Third Baseman Fernando Tatis has been ruled out today with a shoulder injury.

Atlanta has won 5 of their last 7 games, as they are one of only 2 teams in the National League with 50 wins. The Braves are an impressive 50-35 SU overall this season, leading the National League East by 3 games over their nearest competitor. Atlanta's pitching has been dominant of late, as only 2 of their previous 9 opponents have scored more than 3 runs. Atlanta is +10.71 and +9.82 units both SU and on the RL this season. P Tim Hudson will take the mound, and he is 8-4 SU with an ERA of 2.44 and a WHIP of 1.15 this year. The Braves are 11-3 in their last 14 games against the National League East. The Braves are 22-8 in their last 30 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Atlanta is 28-11 in their last 39 games against a right-handed starter. Atlanta is 7-1 in Hudson's last 8 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Braves are 17-8 in Hudson's last 25 starts with 5 days of rest. The Braves are 3-9 in Hudson's last 12 starts against a team with a winning record. Atlanta is 1-6 in Hudson's last 7 road starts against a team with a winning record.

The Braves are 9-3 in their last 12 games as a road favorite. The Over is 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Right Fielder Jason Heyward is not expected to play this afternoon with a hand injury.

Pregame.com projects the final score to be 4-3 in favor of the New York Mets. The Mets +102 is the Side of the Day!

Johnny Detroit, Gambling911.com