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Kalshi traders win with the release of the UFO files, just not with the proof of alien life
$18 million in trading volume has so far come in on the Proof of Extraterrestrial Life market
This week, the popular prediction market Kalshi featured trading on whether the U.S. Pentagon would release those so-called "UFO files". Traders were giving this an 85% chance of happening by midweek.
They were right.
The Pentagon began doing so on Friday morning, saying members of the public can draw their own conclusions on “unidentified anomalous phenomena” like an object that a drone pilot says shone a bright light in the sky and then vanished.
It said in a post on X on Friday that while past administrations sought to discredit or dissuade the American people, President Donald Trump “is focused on providing maximum transparency to the public, who can ultimately make up their own minds about the information contained in these files.” It said additional documents will be released on a rolling basis.
Besides the Pentagon, the effort is led by the White House, the director of national intelligence, the Energy Department, NASA and the FBI.
U.S. President Donald Trump had teased of the release in recent days, thus prompting a surge in trading.
Do Aliens Exist?
The first release includes 162 files, such as old State Department cables, FBI documents and transcripts from NASA of crewed flights into space.
One document details an FBI interview with someone identified as a drone pilot who, in September 2023, reported seeing a “linear object” with a light bright enough to “see bands within the light” in the sky.
“The object was visible for five to ten seconds and then the light went out and the object vanished,” according to the FBI interview.
If you ever watched "Project UFO" during the 1970's, you'd realize these types of accounts are nothing new. Indeed, supposed alien abductions were a thing dating back to 1961 with the highly publicized account of Barney and Betty Hill. The New Hampshire couple claimed they were abducted by aliens in rural New Hampshire.
Another file released Friday morning comes courtesy of a NASA photograph from the Apollo 17 mission in 1972, which by its very nature should be deemed as more credible than say two honeymooners from Portsmouth who may or may not have had a little too much to drink that evening. The NASA photo shows three dots in a triangular formation. However, the Pentagon provided an accompanying caption that reads “there is no consensus about the nature of the anomaly” but that a new, preliminary analysis indicated that it could be a “physical object.”
The Pentagon has been working on declassifying documents related to UFOs for years, and Congress created an office in 2022 to declassify material.
Congress ordered the Pentagon to begin releasing decades of files on UFO sightings in 2022 as some members of the military shared encounters with unexplained aircraft.
A small group of Republicans in Congress has pressed for further transparency, accusing the Pentagon of holding documents back. A March letter from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna demanded 46 UAP videos identified by whistleblowers. On social media on Friday, Luna said those videos are expected to be released in a later Pentagon release.
The Pentagon’s own 2024 report rebutted claims that the U.S. government has recovered alien technology or confirmed evidence of alien life.
Kalshi's Extraterrestrial Life Market
Nearly a quarter of traders believe the U.S. will confirm there is extraterrestrial life (21% as of May 8, 2026). The day prior, 25% backed the YES.
With some $18 million traded thus far, there are no winners as of yet.
Kalshi provided its clear rules on the outcome.
"If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from White House."
- Jagajeet Chiba, Gambling911.com
