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The shock arrest of Prince Andrew Thursday has led one prediction market to begin offering trading on whether the disgraced former prince will ultimately be sentenced to prison. The betting market thus far does not see it happening. Just 10 percent do.
The former Prince Andrew was arrested and held for hours by British police Thursday on suspicion of misconduct in public office related to his links to the late sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. He was released from custody Thursday evening.
It was the first time in nearly four centuries that a senior British royal was placed under arrest.
King Charles III, whose late mother lived by the motto “never complain, never explain,” took the unusual step of issuing a statement on the arrest of his brother, now known as Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor.
“Let me state clearly: the law must take its course,’’ the king said. “As this process continues, it would not be right for me to comment further on this matter.’’
How This Market Will Resolve
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Jagajeet Chiba, Gambling911.com
