Trump to Release Epstein Files By December 31 According to Prediction Market

US President Donald Trump signed legislation Wednesday that compels his administration to release files on convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, bowing to political pressure from his own party after initially resisting those efforts.

Epstein was convicted in 2008 in Florida state court on charges of: “Procuring a person under age 18 for prostitution” (i.e., arranging for a minor to engage in sexual acts for payment as well as "soliciting prostitution".  

Separately, in 2019 he was federally charged with sex-trafficking of minors and conspiracy to commit sex trafficking in the Southern District of New York for alleged actions between 2002-2005

Epstein died on August 10, 2019, prior to his trial. He was found unresponsive in his jail cell at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in New York City, and his death was ruled a suicide by hanging by the New York City medical examiner.

The term “Epstein list” generally refers to the names of prominent and influential people who were associated—socially.  Trump himself knew and appears in photographs with Epstein but insisted he terminated ties with Epstein, including removing him from his Florida Mar-a-Lago club some time in 2007 based on what he described as inappropriate behavior.  Furthermore, Trump asserted he had no knowledge of Epstein’s criminal sex-trafficking activities and has distanced himself from those accusations.  Another former US president, Bill Clinton, also associated with Epstein but his office formerly released a statement that Clinton "knows nothing about the terrible crimes Jeffrey Epstein pleaded guilty to” and that he “had not spoken to Epstein in well over a decade.”

And the prediction markets now suggest the Trump Administration will fully comply with the release of the Epstein Files by December 31, 2025. 

At Polymarket, 84% back the release by this date while 10% think it will happen even sooner (November 31, 2025).   $1.1 million had been traded thus far as of November 21, 2025. 

The Polymarket Rules 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein, which weren’t previously public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying file must contain substantive information pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein.

The following will qualify:

• Previously released documents in which redactions containing new substantive content such as names of associates or practices directly pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein were removed.
• Documents that weren’t previously public and contain information pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein, even if that information was already known from previous releases (e.g. a previously unreleased document pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which mentions Ghislaine Maxwell will qualify even if the information itself isn’t novel) 

What is Next? 

Both the House and Senate passed the bill this week with overwhelming margins after Trump reversed course on his monthslong opposition to the bill and indicated he would sign it.

“This bill is a command for the president to be fully transparent, to come fully clean, and to provide full honesty to the American people,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York said Wednesday.

In a social media post Wednesday as he announced he had signed the bill, Trump wrote, “Democrats have used the ‘Epstein’ issue, which affects them far more than the Republican Party, in order to try and distract from our AMAZING Victories.” 

Per the Associated Press: 

The legislation, however, exempts some parts of the case files. The bill’s authors made sure to include that the Justice Department could withhold personally identifiable information of victims, child sexual abuse materials and information deemed by the administration to be classified for national defense or foreign policy.

“We will continue to follow the law with maximum transparency while protecting victims,” Bondi told a news conference Wednesday when asked about releasing the files.

The bill also allows the Justice Department to withhold information that would jeopardize active investigations or prosecutions.

- Alejandro Botticelli, Gambling911.com