Gaza Fragile Ceasefire Unlikely to Last According to Betting Market

Gaza's fragile ceasefire is not likely to last, according to the betting market at Polymarket. It was among the top five in terms of volume Sunday evening. 

44% of gamblers believed the ceasefire will be called off before December 31, 2025. 

On Sunday, Israeli forces launched a wave of deadly strikes, saying Hamas militants had killed two soldiers, and an Israeli security official said the transfer of aid into the territory was halted.

The military later said it resumed enforcing the ceasefire, and the official confirmed that aid deliveries would resume Monday. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he’s not authorized to discuss the issue with the media.

A little over a week has passed since the start of the U.S.-proposed ceasefire aimed at ending two years of war. U.S. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire remained in place and “we want to make sure it’s going to be very peaceful.”

Vice President JD Vance said Sunday that he may visit Israel in the coming days.

“We’re trying to figure it out,” he told reporters, saying the administration wants to “go and check on how things are going.” Regarding the ceasefire, he said that “there’s going to be fits and starts.”

Health officials said at least 36 Palestinians were killed across Gaza, including children. Israel’s military said it struck dozens of Hamas targets after its troops came under fire.

Hot Betting Markets at Polymarket (in Terms of Volume) 

*Sunday night 

1. Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? 100%
2. Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%? 61%
3. Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? 48%
4. Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? 55%
5. OpenAI browser by October 31? 29%

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