MLB Betting Analysis - September 30, 2025

We kick off the post season today with four games, one already in progress (Tigers vs. Guardians) as this was going to press. 

Tuesday September 30 

Padres @ Cubs 

The Action Network is high on Chicago for Tuesday's game. 

Chicago hands the ball to left-hander Matthew Boyd. One of the stronger pitchers in the National League this season, Boyd is 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.

The difference between Nick Pivetta and Boyd is that the latter’s analytics support his success. In 2025, Boyd ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

This success is likely to continue against San Diego, a team Boyd has thrived against. Through two meetings, the southpaw boasts a 1.59 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

Following Boyd is a reliable bullpen. This season, the Cubs' relief corps ranks in the top half of the league in ERA, xERA and xFIP.

Red Sox @ Yankees 

New York Yankees career statistics vs. Garrett Crochet are just .229 in 1-5 at bats.  He has allowed six home runs by these Yankees. 

Boston Red Sox career statistics vs. Max Fried are .256 in 86 at bats. 

From The Action Network: 

The Red Sox bullpen was more effective overall in the final two months of the season than the Yankees and, led by Chapman's brilliance, was equally effective in high-leverage situations.

The Yankees were the better team offensively by a considerable margin this season. Still, their higher swing-and-miss rate in the final month of the season, as well as lesser fundamental play, are concerning entering a potentially tight-knit matchup. The same can be said for the Yankees' poor defensive play relative to their opponent.

Thursday September 25 

Tigers @ Guardians - 

From ESPN: 

Four of Parker Messick's first six career outings have been quality starts, and the Cleveland Guardians are 4-2 when he takes the hill. On Thursday, Messick will start the biggest game of his fledgling career at home against the Detroit Tigers. The clubs are neck-and-neck in the AL Central heading into the finale of their three-game set. Messick's 2.08 ERA is artificially low, but 31 strikeouts to just five walks in his inaugural 34 2/3 innings is solid. The Tigers hit left-handers well, but Messick's recent success, home-field advantage and the importance of the game land the lefty in streaming territory.

Seven of the last nine in this series have stayed Under. 

Red Sox @ Blue Jays -

The Red Sox have won the last three out of four in this series and control their own destiny to make the playoffs. Toronto still has something to play for (even after securing their post season spot).

Brayan Bello lasted only four innings and allowed four runs — three earned — in a loss to the A’s. Bello allowed four runs with four strikeouts over five innings in a loss against the Yankees in his prior start. 

Some of the top cappers we follow are on Boston here. 

But both ESPN and Winners and Whiners are pushing back on Bello and the Red Sox for tonight's game. 

From Winners and Whiners: 

The Blue Jays know Brayan Bello very well. They are 38-for-130 with eight doubles and three home runs against Bello, who’s given up at least three earned runs in each of his last three starts.

Hereof, I expect the Blue Jays’ lineup to break out of its funk. Toronto has accounted for a .600 OPS and 67 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the past 10 days. Facing a familiar face will help, and you should keep your eyes on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer.

Guerrero Jr. is 11-for-27 with four doubles and two home runs against Bello, while Springer is 10-for-28 with a double and a home run versus Boston’s righty. On the other side, Jarren Duran is 5-for-8 with four doubles against Shane Bieber, who’s slowly but surely building up his form.

Wednesday September 24 

These Teams Are Hot Right Now

• Seattle Mariners
• Cleveland Guardians
• Miami Marlins
• New York Yankees
• Atlanta Braves (10-0 but eliminated) 
• Cincinnati Reds 
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Diego Padres

These Teams Should Be Avoided

• Detroit Tigers
• New York Mets 
• San Francisco Giants
• Texas Rangers
• Minnesota Twins
• Washington Nationals
• Chicago White Sox
• Los Angeles Angels

Tigers @ Guardians 

From ESPN: 

A strong case can be made for Jack Flaherty to step up in the crucial matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians. He has pitched well lately with a 2.70 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over his past four games, but only 17 strikeouts in 20 innings with a generous nine walks indicate the veteran has enjoyed a bit of recent good fortune. Even if he pitches well against the Guardians, Flaherty faces the lineup with the league's lowest strikeout rate, tempering fantasy potential. A lot more can go wrong than right in this AL Central encounter.

Cleveland is 17-3 in their last 20 games as Detroit implodes. Remarkably, the Guardians are yet to clinch a playoff spot as they come into this one tied with Detroit. 

Cleveland is listed at -145. 

Cleveland Guardians career statistics vs. Jack Flaherty are just .189.

Detroit Tigers career statistics vs. Tanner Bibee are .263 in 133 at bats but with just two homers. 

Flaherty has had issues on the road all season long. Per The Action Network, the Detroit starter holds a 5.20 ERA away from home and has been doing worse in his recent outings, with a 4.71 ERA across his past seven games.

Bibee, on the other hand, has performed much better at home.

Additionally, the Cleveland bullpen ranks third this season with a 3.50.

The percentage of money coming in was 70% on the Tigers moneyline. 

Top cappers we follow are on Cleveland -145 and we will be too. 

Gambling911.com Free Picks Record (62-53-2)

September 30 - No Picks 
September 29 - No Picks
September 28 - LA Chargers vs. New York Giants - Giants +6.5 (WIN)
September 27 - Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Washington Huskies - Washington +8 (LOSS)
September 26 - Florida State Seminoles vs. Virginia Cavaliers - Virginia +7 (WIN)
September 25 - No Picks 
September 24 - Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -145 (WIN)
September 23 - Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -168 (LOSS)
September 22 - Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens - Lions +4.5 (WIN)
September 21 - Green Bay Packers vs. Cleveland Browns - Browns +7.5 (WIN)
September 21 - Las Vegas Raiders vs. Washington Commanders - Commanders -3 (WIN)
September 21 - LA Rams vs. Philadlphia Eagles - Eagles -3 (WIN)
September 21 - Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers - Panthers +4.5 (WIN)
September 20 - Maryland Terrapins +10 Wisconsin Badgers - Wisconsin -10 (LOSS)
September 20 - Florida Gators +7.5 Miami - Florida +7.5 (LOSS)
September 20 - SMU Mustangs vs. TCU Horned Frogs - TCU -7 (WIN)
September 19 - Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Rutgers Scarlett Knights - Rutgers +2.5 (LOSS)
September 18 - Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills - Bills -11.5 (LOSS)
September 17 - NO PICKS
September 16 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers - Guardians +122 (WIN)
September 15 - Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
September 15 - Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings - Falcons +3.5 (LOSS) 
September 15 - Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets - Jets +6.5 (LOSS)
September 14 - Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - Steelers -3 ()
September 13 - Texas A&M Aggies vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish - Notre Dame -6.5 (LOSS)
September 13 - Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers - Florida +7.5 (LOSS)
September 13 - Clemson Tigers vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - Georgia Tech +3 (WIN)
September 12 - Kansas City Royals vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Over 9 (WIN)
September 11 - Washington Commanders vs. Green Bay Packers - Commanders +3.5 (LOSS)
September 10 - No Picks Today
September 9 - Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (WIN)
September 8 - Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics - Red Sox -160 (WIN)
September 8 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Texas Rangers - Brewers (LOSS)
September 7 - Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets - Steelers -2.5 (LOSS)
September 6 - Illinois vs. Duke - Duke -2.5 (LOSS)
September 6 - Baylor Bears vs. SMU Mustangs - SMU -2.5 (LOSS) 
September 6 - Virginia Cavaliers vs. NC State - NC State -2.5 (WIN)
September 5 - Kansas City Chiefs vs. LA Chargers - Chiefs -3 (LOSS)
September 4 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays -160 (WIN)
September 3 - Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8.5 (WIN)
September 2 - Athletics vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Athletics -107 (LOSS)
September 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates -165 - Dodgers -165 (LOSS)
September 1 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 9 (LOSS)
August 31 - Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Phillies -161 (LOSS)
August 30 - Texas Longhorns vs. Ohio State Buckeyes - Buckeyes PICK'EM (WIN)
August 29 - Auburn Tigers vs. Baylor Bayors - Auburn Tigers -2.5 (WIN)
August 29 - Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 28 - No Picks 
August 27 - Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles - Under 9 (WIN)
August 26 - No Picks 
August 25 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Under 7.5 (WIN)
August 24 - No Picks
August 23 - Iowa State vs. Kansas State - Kansas State -3 (LOSS)
August 21 - Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees - Yankees -142 (LOSS)
August 20 - Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 19 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
August 17 - No Picks 
August 16 - Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -165 (WIN)
August 16 - Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
August 15 - - No Picks 
August 14 - Chicago Cubs vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Blue Jays -103 (WIN)
August 13 - No Picks 
August 12 - No Picks 
August 11 - San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 7 (WIN)
August 10 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox - Guardians -122 (LOSS)
August 10 - New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Under 8 (LOSS)
August 9 - Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (WIN)
August 8 - Phillies vs. Rangers - Under 7 (LOSS)
August 8 - Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Reds -118 (LOSS)
August 7 - No Picks
August 6 - No Picks 
August 5 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. LA Dodgers - Over 9 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Athletics +112 (WIN)
August 5 - Athletics vs. Washington Nationals - Over 8.5 (WIN)
August 4 - San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks -125 (LOSS)
August 3 - New York Yankees vs. Miami Marlins - Marlins +103 (WIN)
August 2 - LA Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Rays +104 (WIN)
August 1 - Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox - Over 8 (LOSS)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 30 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles - Blue Jays +103 (WIN)
July 29 - No Picks
July 28 - Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 (LOSS)
July 28 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (WIN)
July 27 - No Picks Today 
July 26 - No Picks Today 
July 25 - LA Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -102 (LOSS)
July 24 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers - Tigers -130 (LOSS)
July 23 - Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Red Sox +146 (WIN)
July 22 - No Picks Today 
July 21 - San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves - Giants +118 (LOSS)
July 20 - Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7 (WIN)
July 19 - New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves +112 (LOSS)
July 18 - No Picks Today
July 13 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox - Red Sox -115 (WIN)
July 12 - No Picks Today
July 11 - Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Rangers +108 (WIN) 
July 10 - No Picks Today 
July 9 - Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds - Reds -136 (WIN)
July 8 - No Picks Today
July 7 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros - Guardians +118 (WIN)
July 6 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 7.5 (LOSS)
July 5 - Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants - Under 9 (PUSH)
July 4 - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 9.5 (LOSS)
July 3 - No Picks Today
July 2 - No Picks Today 
July 1 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers - Under 7.5(LOSS)
June 29 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves - Braves -157 (LOSS)
June 28 - Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Marlins +136 (WIN)
June 27 - Athletics vs. New York Yankees - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 26 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians - Guardians -130 (LOSS)
June 26 - Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 24 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals - Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 22 - Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics - Athletics +105 (LOSS)
June 22 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Under 215 (WIN)
June 21 - Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Under 8.5 (WIN)
June 19 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (WIN)
June 18 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Miami Marlins +146 (LOSS)
June 17 - No Picks Today
June 16 - Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5(WIN)
June 15 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +143 (LOSS)
June 15 - Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals - Under 7.5 (WIN)
June 14 - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Toronto Blue Jays +140 (LOSS)
June 13 - Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves - Under 8.5 (LOSS)
June 12 - No Picks Today
June 11 - No Picks Today
June 10 - Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 8 (WIN)
June 8 - LA Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals +108 (LOSS)
June 7 - Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +124 (WIN)
June 6 - Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox - Chicago White Sox +160 (WIN)
June 4 - Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners - Baltimore Orioles Even (WIN)
June 2 - Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins - Under 8 (LOSS)
June 1 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Tampa Bay Rays +144 (LOSS)
May 30 - Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets - Under 8 (WIN)
May 29 - Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros - Under 8 (LOSS)
May 26 - Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs - Under 8 (WIN)
May 25 - Miami Marlins vs. LA Angels - Miami Marlins +117 (WIN)
May 24 - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Under 9 (WIN)
May 16 - Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks - Boston Celtics +2.5 (LOSS)
May 13 - Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder - Oklahoma City Thunder -10 (LOSS)
May 8 - LA Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9 (WIN)
May 7 - New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics - New York Knicks +10.5 (WIN)
May 1 - Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers - LA Clippers -6 (PUSH)
April 29 - Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers - Milwaukee Bucks +8 (WIN)
April 25 - LA Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves - Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 (WIN)
April 19 - Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Lakers - Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 (WIN)
April 6 - New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pittsburgh Pirates +138 (WIN)
April 5 - Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils - Houston Cougars +5 (WIN)

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com