What Will Explode Next? Betting Market Opens on Israel Lebanon War

Submitted by Guest on

Written by :

Guest

Published on :

Just one day after pagers used by hundreds of members of the militant group Hezbollah exploded, more electronic devices detonated in Lebanon Wednesday in what appeared to be a second wave of sophisticated, deadly attacks that targeted an extraordinary number of people.

The initial attack killed at least 12 people — including two young children — and wounded thousands more.  Small amounts of explosives were believed to have been placed in the pager shipments.

Both attacks, which are widely believed to be carried out by Israel, have hiked fears that the two sides’ simmering conflict could escalate into all-out war.

Speculation around the origins of the devices that exploded Wednesday has also emerged. A sales executive at the U.S. subsidiary of Japanese walkie-talkie maker Icom told the AP that the exploded radio devices in Lebanon appear to be a knock-off product and not made by Icom.

“I can guarantee you they were not our products,” said Ray Novak, a senior sales manager for Icom’s amateur radio division, in an interview Wednesday at a trade show in Providence, Rhode Island.

Polymarket opened a betting market on Israel invading Lebanon with 15% to 21% believing it will happen.  More than $45,000 had been wagered on this market since opening on September 18 following the pager explosions.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not.

Note: we are taking 0 fees on this and providing the service at a loss.

 

gilbert-horowitz-052524.png

Related Content

Alina Habba Favored to Replace Karoline Leavitt as Press Secretary With Betting Odds Now Up

Alina Habba Favored to Replace Karoline Leavitt as Press Secretary With Betting Odds Now Up

D.C. was caught off guard yesterday when Karoline Leavitt announced her departure as White House press secretary.
Trial to Move Forward in MGM Grand Las Vegas Ketamine Case

Trial to Move Forward in MGM Grand Las Vegas Ketamine Case

Prominent sports agent Dwight Manley claims he was involuntarily drugged with ketamine while playing blackjack in the high-limit area of the MGM Grand in Las Vegas in December 2021.
Why Crash Games Dominate Headlines While Slots Still Drive Online Casino Revenue

Why Crash Games Dominate Headlines While Slots Still Drive Online Casino Revenue

Crash games have become one of the fastest-growing categories in online gambling. Their simple mechanics, quick rounds and popularity among streamers have helped them capture attention well beyond traditional casino audiences.
Cuotas de Apuestas Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks – Semana 1 de la Pretemporada NFL 2026

Cuotas de Apuestas Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks – Semana 1 de la Pretemporada NFL 2026

Los Seattle Seahawks llegan como favoritos por -2.5 puntos ante los Dallas Cowboys en su primer partido de la pretemporada 2026, este sábado por la noche.