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The Cubs are coming in at +182 and Mets -198. The Cubs are 13-3 versus the Mets. Do we dare?
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PITCHING MATCHUP: Cubs LH Jon Lester (10-9, 4.49 ERA) vs. Mets RH Jacob deGrom (8-7, 2.56)
Lester was unable to follow up a strong effort at Pittsburgh, lasting only 4 1/3 innings and getting rocked for six runs and nine hits in a loss to Washington on Friday to fall to 1-3 with an 8.51 ERA this month. The 35-year-old tossed six scoreless innings in his previous turn against the Pirates, the only team he has beaten in eight starts following the All-Star break. Amed Rosario is 5-for-9 against Lester, who posted a 1-0 mark and 2.08 ERA in two starts versus the Mets in 2018.
Despite an overpowering performance in which he struck out 13 and allowed one run and four hits over seven innings versus Atlanta last time out, deGrom had to settle for a no-decision. It marked the 17th consecutive start in which he allowed three runs or fewer and the seventh time since the All-Star break that he has permitted one earned run or less. Kris Bryant is 5-for-14 with two homers off DeGrom, who pitched six innings of two-run ball in a no-decision at Chicago on June 23.
The Mets are 3-13 in deGrom's last 16 home starts vs. a team with a winning record and 0-5 in his last 5 starts vs. National League Central.
The Mets come into this game in desperation mode having lost their last five.
In the end, this is one we just can't pass up due to the value ONLY. Take the Cubs +182. And, yes, we are going against our own policy of betting against teams where the books seem to have a strong opinion, so do exercise care here.
- Tony Caliente, Gambling911.com
