MLB Line and Total Shifts Report - July 19

Written by:
Dan Shapiro
Published on:

Gambling911.com has your all important line and total shifts report for Friday July 19, an indication as to how either action or opinion is helping to move a number.

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Our play last night didn't come through and was worse than what it looked like at the conclusion.  We had the Mets-Giants OVER 7.5 and the game ended with 5 runs scored.  But this one was 1-1 into several extra innings.

Let's look at today's big line shifts and total moves.

Phillies-Pirates OVER 11 - This one has moved from 10 to 11.  Even Bovada has shifted the total dramatically.  70% of those betting the total were still on the OVER at 11.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Phillies RH Jake Arrieta (8-7, 4.54 ERA) vs. Pirates RH Jordan Lyles (5-6, 5.16)

Arrieta answered a porous outing on July 6 with a strong one eight nights later after yielding one run on four hits in five innings of a no-decision against Washington. The 2015 NL Cy Young Award recipient has been working through bone spurs in his pitching elbow for his last seven starts, going so far as to say that "if there was a better option, I might shut it down. But we don't have one." Josh Bell (7-for-21, two homers) has flustered Arrieta, who has struggled on the road with a 3-5 mark and 4.81 ERA while allowing the opposition to bat .300 against him.

Lyles owns an 0-5 mark in his last six outings and a bloated 10.13 ERA in his last seven after getting blitzed for seven runs in two-thirds of an inning in a 10-4 setback at the Chicago Cubs on Saturday. The 28-year-old has allowed eight homers in his last six trips to the mound and four walks in two of his last four outings. Jean Segura is 6-for-15 against Lyles, who owns a 1-1 record with a 3.22 ERA in 10 career appearances (six starts) versus Philadelphia.

Lyles' got to get better, one would think, so going with an OVER 11 here is a tough pill to swallow, especially after our loss last night.  Nine of the last ten meetings have stayed UNDER this number also.

Blue Jays -158 - 5Dimes still had the Blue Jays at -158, but who wants to bet Toronto at this high a number?  Most books had them priced over -160.  But the line has moved from -141 so there is definitely a concern among the books that the Blue Jays have this one in the bag.  70% of the public was still backing Toronto at this high price.

Nationals - This line has moved up 15 cents most books to -121.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Nationals LH Patrick Corbin (7-5, 3.39 ERA) vs. Braves RH Julio Teheran (5-6, 3.71)

Corbin has provided exactly what the Nationals hoped when they signed him to a six-year, $140-million deal in the offseason, entering the series fifth in the NL in strikeouts (139), seventh in WAR for pitchers (3.3) and ninth in ERA. The 29-year-old is 2-0 in his past five starts with 45 strikeouts in 34 innings, giving up only six runs with six walks in that span. Corbin, who struck out 10 in six innings against Philadelphia on Saturday after fanning 11 against Kansas City on July 7, is 5-1 with a 1.66 ERA in nine career games (seven starts) against Atlanta.

Teheran, who was pushed back from Thursday's series opener to allow rookie Kyle Wright to slot into the rotation, has rebounded nicely from a shaky end to June with two strong starts this month, giving up two earned runs across 12 innings with 12 strikeouts in a pair of no-decisions. The 28-year-old struck out six and walked one while allowing three runs (two earned) in six innings Saturday in San Diego after concluding the first half with six scoreless innings and five hits surrendered July 5 against Miami. Teheran is 6-6 with a 4.13 ERA in 21 career starts against Washington.

The Nats have won seven of the last ten meetings.

Brewers -131 - One book had this line climb from -119.  The total has moved from 9.5 to 10.5.

Milwaukee is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Brewers RH Jhoulys Chacin (3-9, 5.18 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks RH Taylor Clarke (2-3, 6.21)

Chacin has pitched well since returning from a strained lower back in mid-June, allowing fewer than three runs in four of his five starts, but worked more than five innings just once and has gone 0-2 in that span. The 31-year-old Venezuelan settled for a no-decision against San Francisco on Sunday after giving up two runs - one earned - and four hits in five frames. Chacin has made 18 starts and one relief appearance versus Arizona in his career, going 6-4 with a 3.17 ERA.

Clarke is expected to be activated from the 10-day injured list, where he has been since July 3 due to lower back inflammation, and make his 10th start of the season - and his career. The 26-year-old rookie from Virginia exited his outing against the Dodgers in Los Angeles on July 2 with the injury after yielding three runs on five hits and three walks over 3 2/3 innings. Clarke, who never has faced Milwaukee, has posted a 6.92 ERA in three starts at home as opposed to a 5.90 mark in six turns and one relief appearance on the road.

Rangers-Astros UNDER 8 - This one has dropped from 9 to 8. 

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rangers LH Mike Minor (8-4, 2.73 ERA) vs. Astros RH Justin Verlander (11-4, 2.98)

Minor is enjoying the best season of his career as he is in the second year of a three-year, $28 million deal and feels comfortable with the Rangers. "I don't want to go anywhere," the 31-year-old told reporters. "My name was talked about in the offseason, so I'm used to it. It seems like ever since I signed, I've been a topic. It's like I signed here just to be traded." Minor is 3-3 with a 4.48 ERA in 14 career games (11 starts) versus Houston after giving up four runs and seven hits over five innings in a no-decision on Saturday.

Verlander defeated the Rangers on Sunday, when he gave up two runs and four hits over six innings. The 36-year-old is holding Texas batters to a collective .167 average this season and often has stymied the club while going 16-8 with a 2.79 ERA in 29 career starts. Verlander, who will be trying to move into a tie for the major-league lead in victories, is just 3-2 in eight turns at home despite posting a 2.95 ERA and 0.80 WHIP.

Five of the last six meetings have gone OVER this number.

Mariners -113 - The Angels have gone from -135 to -113.  Nearly 70% on the Angels. 

We won't dare bet Seattle, with just one win in their last nine, but we would advise caution backing the Angels in this situation.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Angels RH Jaime Barria (3-2, 5.22 ERA) vs. Mariners RH Mike Leake (7-8, 4.60)

Barria will be recalled from Triple-A Salt Lake to be the primary pitcher, but the Angels may opt to use an "opener" before his entrance. The Panamanian, who turned 22 on Thursday, last pitched for the Angels on July 3 as he registered a season-best eight strikeouts while giving up two runs and four hits over five innings while defeating Texas. Barria beat the Mariners on April 21, when he allowed one run and four hits over five frames to improve to 2-3 with a 3.73 ERA in six career appearances (five starts) versus the club.

Leake didn't make it out of the first inning against the Angels on July 12 as he was hammered for seven runs - four earned - and eight hits while recording two outs during a 13-0 loss. The 31-year-old pitched well in his previous turn, when he blanked St. Louis on five hits over 7 2/3 innings. Leake is 1-2 with a 6.59 ERA in three starts against the Angels this season and 5-5 with a 4.33 ERA over 10 career outings.

Our Free Picks Record July 19

2019 MLB Record: 17-13-2 (56.6%) - No Plays Over -160

2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)

2018-19 NBA Record: 7-5 (58%)

2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)

2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)

- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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