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The 2019 Kentucky Derby became a lot more interesting late Wednesday as presumptive favorite Omaha Beach was scratched due to a throat condition. With Richard Mandella’s horse off the Triple Crown trail, most of the action and interest will seemingly focus on Hall of Famer Bob Baffert and his trio of horses. A five-time winning trainer, Baffert is well equipped to make it six. Scroll Down For More....
Baffert’s Favorites
All three Baffert trainees drew favorable post positions, sparing the public from his annual whining and complaining. One way to look at the race is to find horses that ran well and nearly beat Omaha Beach who would’ve gone off at 2/1 or lower. Improbable fits that profile, losing by one length to Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby.
Game Winner does as well, losing by a nose in the Rebel Stakes. Joel Rosario didn’t get an overly ideal trip that day and still managed to pose a serious threat to Omaha Beach. Quite possibly, Game Winner was not fully cranked up for the Arkansas races having already secured his spot at Churchill Downs.
Roadster’s lone loss game at the hooves of Game Winner and despite the defection of Mike Smith, figures to play a role in the overall outcome of the race.
Among its many features, RealBookies has a PPH Racebook where you can bet on all the triple crown races.
Rest of the Top
Other horses with somewhat short odds include Maximum Security, Tacitus and Win Win Win. All three have legitimate chances to prevail. The most mysterious of the trio, and of the entire Derby Field for that matter is Maximum Security. Trained by Jason Servis, the horse has taken an unconventional road to the Derby and in the leadup to the race with three slow works at Palm Meadows in Florida. Servis uses this tactic often and it could be a sign that the horse, who is 1-for-1 in the off going and 4-for-4 overall in his career, is cranked up and ready to roll.
Tacitus has done nothing wrong in his march to the first Saturday in May. The Bill Mott trainee has won three races in a row, including one on a sloppy track and has an ideal post position at 7. Tacitus will be reliant on a fast early pace and will be a horse flying late. It’s a great sign that his jockey Jose Ortiz has elected to stay aboard after toying with the possibility to riding Improbable for Bob Baffert.
Win Win Win has garned a great deal of pre-Derby buzz and figures to be much lower than 15/1 when the gates spring open late Saturday. Trainer Mike Trombetta’s horse turned in an eye-catching workout under regular rider Julian Pimentel. He is also a horse that will benefit from a fast early pass and the chaos that is sure to ensue. The four horses Win Win Win has finished behind in his career are anything but shabby, including Derby entrants Vekoma and Tacitus and Alwaysmining, the overly impressive blowout winner of the Federico Tesio who should garner heavy attention in the Preakness.
Longshots worth taking a look at both to potentially win but more likely fill out the bottom of exotic tickets include Tax, Vekoma and Country House. Both Tax and Country House are seriously compromised by their post positions with Tax stuck in the 2 hole and Country House now in stall 19.
Vekoma is a horse, despite his unorthodox running style, could figure heavily into the proceedings especially if the track comes up muddy or sloppy given his 469 wet number. Despite a relative lack of Derby success, Javier Castellano is one of America’s best riders and will definitely be a factor in the race.
