Will the Jacksonville Jaguars Cover the Spread This Week?

We are monitoring the Jacksonville Jaguars to determine if they will cover the spread this week.

Week 10

Jaguars @ Vikings

Line Trend  - Vikings opened at –4.5 FanDuel, -5.5 most books.  Line trend –4.5 most books Monday.  

Sagarin – Using last week’s numbers (screenshot Sagarin 2024 NFL Week 9) we get a number of Vikings 6.15. The opening line came out below this number.  The early trending number stayed below this number.   

Action Trend –   

Historic Analysis - 

Why Bet Against The Jaguars Here

• 2-7 Jaguars looking to cover their 4th straight game? 

Season Review

The Jaguars opened the season with the second best odds to win the AFC South, only after Houston and above the Indianapolis Colts.

Week 1 - The Jaguars opened the week as a +3 underdog in Miami.  That line only moved a half point to +3.5. Action was mostly on the Dolphins at between 63% and 75% throughout the week.  Sagarin had the number at 5.1 favoring the Dolphins.  This indicated an underlay of between 1.5 and 2 points.  Neither team had an edge here with this scenario. 

Week 1 Result: Nothing too riveting here as the Jaguars looked like they would be a good enough team in 2024 despite the close loss.  Sagarin provided nothing in the way of any edge.  Miami won by 3 points and that pushed for many while the Jaguars officially covered the spread here.

Week 2 - With the Jaguars covering in a close game against what was expected to be a better team at home (thus the Jags +3.5 spread), Jacksonville certainly played well enough in Week 1.  Jacksonville opened their first home game of the season against the Browns at -2.5 with the line moving to -3 and mostly staying there throughout the week.  Sagarin had this line on the money. Action was 70% or greater on Jacksonville. 

Week 2 Results: Cleveland beat Jacksonville 18-13.

Week 3 - Heading to Buffalo with their 0-2 record Straight Up, one would expect from the onset that gamblers would be backing the Bills to win outright here.  This one was taking place in prime time Monday Night Football, thus ensuring plenty of wagering volume.  Not surprisingly, some 70% of the bets were coming in on Buffalo.  This one initially opened at Bills -6 and got as low as -4 (despite most of the action coming in on Buffalo).  It did appear as if the oddsmakers held a strong opinion on the Jaguars ability to cover here.

Week 3 Results: Bills obliterated Jacksonville 47-10.

Week 4 - Jacksonville heads to Houston with its 0-3 record Straight Up.  The line opened at Texans -4 and shot up to -7 to begin the week.  During the course of this week, that number dropped as low as -4.5 (briefly) at some of the sharper books.  Most kept the number at -5, where it closed.  Sagarin gave us a number of 6.98.  That's exactly where the game opened very early in the week prior to the downward trend. Texans were seeing between 60% and 66% of the action but the line dropped in that team's favor regardless. 

Week 4 Results: Jacksonville loses another but still managed to cover the spread with a 4-point loss, one point below the final number of 4.5/5.

Week 5 - This 0-4 Jaguars team hosts Indianapolis, a team that's playing .500 football at the moment.  Despite the 0-4 start, Jacksonville opens as a -2.5 favorite.  The 6-day lead-up line trend came in at 3 to 3.5.  Sagarin indicated the wrong team was favored here as they gave us a number of Colts -2.09.  The wrong team favored in the 3/3.5 spot does not offer an edge to either team.  Action came in heavy on the Jags as perhaps the betting public believed they were due for a win.

Week 4 Results: Jacksonville wins but does not officially cover, 37-34, as the spread was primarily -3.5.

Week 9 - This was fascinating.  The line opened at Philadelphia -6.5 for a hot second (literally) before jumping to 7 and hovering between the 7 and 7.5 throughout the week. Action was 80% to 86% on the Eagles. We had an overlay of 1 point (6.5). 

Week 9 Results: Eagles win but Jacksonville covers with the final score 28-23 (5 point loss). 

Early Super Bowl 2025 Odds

For all the latest updated live futures odds go here.