College Football Handicapping Picks: MSU vs. Indiana, More

Written by:
Mary Montgomery
Published on:
Nov/17/2023

We have your college football betting previews for a number of games taking place November 18, 2023 as the regular season begins to wind down.

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MSU vs. Indiana

Our model suggests there is an overlay in this game as much as 3 points as our number comes in at 0.21 Indiana and the line is Hoosiers -3.5.  Overlays in this range from 3 to 3.5 are quite good for the dogs.  We're seeing them cover at an 81 percent clip with our sampling

Indiana at 3-7 Straight Up and 6-4 Against The Spread may also be due for a correction.  They upset Wisconsin two weeks ago but suffered six straight losses to get there.  They fell 3-38 to mighty Ohio State last week, even failing to cover the 32 point spread.

Michigan State does have Indiana's number in this long established series (begun in 1922) despite their lackluster season.  Michigan State holds a dominant 49-18-2 all-time record against Indiana.

The Spartans are also 3-7 Straight Up and 4-5-1 ATS.

Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry predicts:

"Redshirt freshman Katin Houser is set to make his fifth start for MSU. It’s been an up and down start to the young quarterback's career, but he’s flashed the potential that made him a four-star prospect in the 2022 recruiting class. Indiana’s defense presents Houser an opportunity for a big game, as the Hoosiers rank No. 72 in passing yards allowed per game. I see the youngster throwing for a pair of touchdowns in this game and having his best game so far as a Spartan."

NC State @ Virginia Tech

This one has wobbled between Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5 and -3 with fairly balanced action. 

We have the NC State Wolfpack favored with our number coming in at 1.34.  That spells a 4 to 4.5 overlay as well as the wrong team being favored.

Our model has the dog (in this case NC State) covering in 75% of our sampling of games in the 2.5 to 3 point range without going over the 3.

BetUS host Gary Segars, and expert handicappers Kyle Hunter and Parker Fleming preview the College Football Week 12 game between NC State and Virginia Tech.

Segars does point out that North Carolina State is 1-6 Against The Spread in their last seven as a road dog. 

Fleming's read on this game: "One area that's going to really stand out for me in this game that really really goes in Virginia Tech's favor is NC State is 129th on early downs deficiency.  Virginia Tech is 43rd.  Virginia Tech just needs to avoid making mistakes."

We here at Gambling911.com still like where this number lands for the Wolfpack.

And other pundits appear to be bullish on NC State as well.

Scott Roche of FanSided's Fighting Gobbler:

"Aside from Florida State and Louisville, this is going to be the toughest test of the season for the Hokies against the Wolfpack. They have a good defense and their offense is capable of making big plays. This game could come down to special teams, something that Pry’s team has been very good at this season. It’s senior day at Lane Stadium and Tech has an opportunity to get to bowl-eligibility, but the problem is, NC State is not Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, or Syracuse. Getting off to a good start is going to be key for the Hokies. This game can go any way and don’t be surprised if it comes down to which team has the ball last."

Matej Sis of VTScoop is not on board with the Hokies either it seems.

"I'd love to see Virginia Tech continue to play their best football, but their opponent makes that extremely hard to do. My issue when projecting this game is that despite NC State's struggles on offense - they know how to absolutely frustrate opposing offenses with a Top-3 defense the Hokies will face all season. The Hokies have looked dominant when they can get their offense in a rhythm, control time of possession and keep their defense fresh. NC State is going to force a lot of 3-and-outs and negative plays and I'm curious to see how Virginia Tech's offense will adapt without a snowballing effect on offense."

UGA @ Tennessee

Georgia has won the last six against Tennessee in double digits. The average score in the last six has been Georgia 39 and Tennessee 13. The number here has been Bulldogs -9.5 and -10.  We get a number of UGA 6.22, suggesting an overlay of 3 to 3.5.  There is no edge found with overlays in this line range based on our model.

- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com

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