Kentucky Wildcats @ Mississippi State Prop Bets

Written by:
Dan Shapiro
Published on:
Nov/04/2023

Mississippi State is not getting any love from the public or the oddsmakers as they come in as the +5 home dog and 70% of the action is on Kentucky.

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Let's Look at the Line

This one has come up from -3.5 across the board and we were even seeing a few 5.5's. Mississippi State should be favored here as we are getting a number of Bulldogs 0.37 courtesy of Sagarin.  So not only is the wrong team favored, we also have an overlay of 5.5.  In this range, that's major for the dog according to our model.  With a significant enough sampling, dogs are hitting at an 81% clip under this scenario

There is an important caveat that does not completely showing in the Sagarin ratings though.  Mississippi State will be without two key players.

The Bulldogs’ starting quarterback, Will Rogers, will be missing his third straight game, and star running back Woody Marks will be missing his second straight game.  Much of this is already calculated in Sagarin by now.

Mike Wright will get the start under center for Mississippi State, and he has led the Bulldogs to a 1-1 record in his previous two starts.

Mississippi State will come into this one 2-6 Against The Spread despite being 4-4 Straight Up.

Prop Bets for Kentucky vs. Mississippi State

3 Straight Scores by Either Team

yes

-209

no

+153

Team to Score First

MSST

+105

KEN

-141

First score of Game is Touchdown

yes

-295

no

+195

Any Team to Score 40+ Points

yes

+526

no

-1000

Will there be Overtime

yes

+800

no

-2000

Will there be a Scoreless Quarter

yes

+158

no

-218

Time of First Score O/U 6 (mins elapsed)

Under(6)

-114

Over(6)

-117

Defensive or special teams TD scored

yes

+233

no

-334

Team to Score Last

MSST

-103

KEN

-130

- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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