Who leads the odds for the 2019 Kentucky Derby?
With the third of four Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pools about ready to close, and the Kentucky Derby itself now some 53 days away, it’s about time we start analyzing the odds for the horses bound for “The Run for the Roses” on May 4.
The Kentucky Derby Future Wager is an opportunity for fans to bet early on the potential Derby horse they think will go on to win the Kentucky Derby race.
Future Wager bets typically offer larger payouts than betting the same horse on race day, because the risk is greater now as there is always a chance the horse may not even make it into the race from either injury, sickness or just not being good enough.
This Future Wager offers 24 potential contenders to bet on, from whom 22 are individually named competitors, while the 23rd contender represents "All Fillies" and the 24th option is a bet on “All Others”. A bet on “all others” will win if any horse other than the 23 individually named in this pool wins the Kentucky Derby.
The first Future Wager Pool ran from November 22, 2018 at 12 PM EST to November 25th, 2018 at 6PM EST. A total of $186,470 was bet with 35% or about $65,500 bet on “all others” and closed at 6/5.
About 12% or $22,000 was bet on 2018 Two Year Colt Champion Game Winner, who closed at 5-1, with Coliseum ($13,772) edging out Instagrand ($12,950) for the second most and both closing at 10-1.
Coliseum flopped in his two races in January and late February and has since been declared out of the Kentucky Derby picture. Needless to say, if you bet Coliseum in November you lost in February, some three months before the race is even run.
Future Wager Pool #2 ran from February 8th, 2018 at12 PM to February 10th, 2019 at 6 PM. The total amount of money bet more than doubled Pool One with just shy of $400,000 bet.
Once again, “all others” dominated but also dropped from 35% of the money to 22% or about $85,000 and held at 6/5. Game Winner, who again held at 5-1, took the same 12% or a little over $49,000. Super impressive first time out winner Hidden Scroll ($37,403), who went from not being on the list to a miniscule 7-1, leap frogged everyone and nosed out the strapping Improbable ($37,268), who dropped from 17-1 in Future One to 7-1 in Future Two, for the second most.
At this writing, Future Wager Pool #3 is still ongoing and, although the patterns remain relatively the same, the odds have changed drastically. Game Winner, still holding at 5-1, has taken over the top spot with $5,133 bet on him thus far (with still 3 days of betting to go), “all others”, which took $4,280, skyrocketed from 6/5 to 6-1. The late running Bourbon War ($3,578) dropped like a rock from Future Pool #2 (31-1) to Future Pool #3 (8-1). Off back to back impressive wins War of Will ($3,367) also took a sizable drop from 17-1 to 7-1.
It will be interesting to see how Future Wager #3 closes and, of course, what Future Wagering #4, which opens April 5, 2019 and closes on April 7, 2019, brings. With still some 18 Kentucky Derby prep races left, each looming larger and larger, the closer we get to May 4, the odds and horses will continue to change dramatically.
To see how interesting this gets just imagine how a horse could be 99-1 in November yet be 8 or 10-1 in April and vice versa. Future Wagering is like the sport of Horse Racing itself. It is the ultimate in high risk, high reward. It’s not only about the money, it’s about the rush of adrenaline for everyone who bets.
