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Another horse whose odds could improve with a sloppy track included Discreetly Mine, currently with Kentucky Derby odds set at +4500 at betED.com. Discreetly Mine would pay out $450 on a $10 bet if he were to win.
ESPN.com's David Grening points out that Discreetly Mine is out of the mare Pretty Discreet, who in 1995 won the Grade 1 Alabama at 1 1/4 miles by eight lengths over a sloppy Saratoga main track.
Trainer Todd Pletcher has four horses in this year's Derby, for which Discreetly Mine is the least talked about. During a press conference, Pletcher explained that he felt the horse's chances in the Louisiana Derby were compromised by a workout in which "he galloped out way too far and way too fast," six days before the race.
At Churchill Downs, Pletcher has been happy with Discreetly Mine's training, according to ESPN.
"I like his energy level, I like the way he's moving, just his general attitude's good right now," Pletcher said.
Discreetly Mine starts off in the number 15 post position. Only 3 horses have won from this position since 1900.
A muddy track should improve his odds dramatically and the rains on Saturday are expected to be torrential.
Last year, the biggest long shot, Mine That Bird, ended up winning the Kentucky Derby on a muddy track.
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Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
