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2009 Belmont Stakes Picks (From The Pros)

Written by:
C Costigan
Published on:
Jun/06/2009
2009 Belmont Stakes Picks

Everybody is looking for 2009 Belmont Stakes picks.  Gambling911.com has honed in on a few that we figure might be useful for our readers.

Our friends at BetUS.com like a high paying long shot in Mr. Hot Stuff:

Of their 2009 Belmont Stakes picks, the biggest upset pick would have to be Mr. Hot Stuff, who BetUS.com had listed at +2200 odds.

"The son of Tiznow has every right to improve in the Belmont Stakes this Saturday.  If there is one horse that figures to be difficult to not wager on right now in the sportsbook, it's Mr. Hot Stuff.  



"Why?  Because his form says that he should be ready for a top effort. Although like Chocolate Candy in this race, Mr. Hot Stuff did most of his work on the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita, his breeding suggests that he almost certainly will improve on the dirt.  His Kentucky Derby was terrible, like Chocolate Candy's, but his work tab has been better than that of his rivals going into the Belmont and his ability to run close enough to the pace to not get caught behind a wall of horses means that he might be an underlay in the Belmont Stakes."

What we like about this pick:  The payout obviously.  $2200 for every $100 bet - This is a good one to throw some money at.  The typical horse bet during the Kentucky Derby was around $10 or so.  A $10 bet at BetUS.com on Mr. Hot Stuff would pay out $220.  Not too shabby there. 

What we don't like about most of the BetUS.com picks is that they tend to be wrong. 

Just kidding.  But they haven't had the best track record this horse racing season (no pun intended).  Let's see if their luck changes this go around.

Sports Illustrated's Gene Menez reported the following on Charitable Man and his chances of winning the 2009 Belmont Stakes race:

"The top spot almost came down to a coin flip between Charitable Man, who impressively won the Peter Pan four weeks ago, and Mine That Bird. The former wins out because, as has been repeated many times, "Pace makes the race," and Charitable Man is the lone speed in a Belmont packed with late-run closers. If he can get away with a half mile in :49, he should be home free.

"In addition, after Charitable Man was forced to make a late 2009 debut because of injury, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin elected to bypass the Kentucky Derby and target the Belmont instead so the horse is set up to run big on Saturday. Also, there are no concerns about him getting the Belmont's 1 ½ mile distance since his sire, Lemon Drop Kid, won the 1999 Belmont. And if that isn't enough evidence in his favor, Charitable Man is a perfect 3-for-3 on dirt surfaces and 2-for-2 at Belmont. The pick."

Charitable Man seems to be everyone's pick outside of Mine That Bird.  What we like about Charitable Man is the payout, which was around 3/1 odds last check.

Some food for thought from ESPN.com's Jeremy Plonk when considering your 2009 Belmont Stakes picks:

"Unless he's gassed from the trail AND someone else steps up to run a career-best race, the one-time one-hit wonder should lay over the Belmont 141 field. It's intriguing to see what the betting public does with him, namely how much they jump on the Calvin Borel Triple Crown angle in the win pool. With far, far fewer casual racing fans interested in this Belmont due to a lack of a Triple Crown bid, you should see much more "smart" money in the pools. But the wiseguys seem to be coming out of the woodwork of New York for CHARITABLE MAN, which could make the 'BIRD an overlay. I could see him anywhere from 8-5 to 5-2, which is quite a spread."

Rob Fundter, The Amateur Capper, reporting on behalf of Bloodhorse, was going with Charitable Man.

"I'm going with CHARITABLE MAN, trained by KIARAN McLAUGHLIN who conditioned 2006 winner JAZIL.  Without MINE THAT BIRD, CHARITABLE MAN would have been a heavy favorite.  The $200,000 yearling purchase was a graded stakes winner at two, taking the G.2 Futurity at Belmont Park.  That day he defeated eventual Louisiana Derby winner and starting Kentucky Derby favorite FRIESAN FIRE.  Obviously injured, he was off until contesting the G.1 Blue Grass in April.  The layoff, an outside post, and a wide trip made that effort nothing more than an afternoon workout over Keeneland's Polytrack.

"Last out in the G.2 Peter Pan, CHARITABLE MAN settled nicely behind run-off HELLO BROADWAY (entered in the G.2 Woody Stephens over 7f on the undercard).  He was deftly handled by ALAN GARCIA who allowed his mount's natural speed to put him into winning position on the wide Belmont Park far turn.  A lesser horse, in only his second start of the year, would have bid for the lead and tired.  Not so for the son of 1999 Belmont Stakes winner LEMON DROP KID.  CHARITABLE MAN persevered while tiring at a slower rate than his competition.

"He owns a tactical advantage on every Belmont Stakes contender but does not need the lead to win.  The slower tempo of the 1 ½ mile test of stamina will allow CHARITABLE MAN to use his high cruising speed to be positioned on or just off the lead.  He will use the stamina from his sire to get the final ½ mile to win."

Place your bets now here on the 2009 Belmont Stakes (odds appear below)

 

1

Chocolate Candy    

+1000

2

Dunkirk    

+400

3

Mr Hot Stuff    

+1800

4

Summer Bird    

+1200

5

Luv Gov    

+2000

6

Charitable Man    

+300

7

Mine That Bird    

Ev

8

Flying Private    

+1500

9

Miners Escape    

+2000

10

Brave Victory    

+2500 

Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher 

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