Thursday Night College Football Game Overlays, Underlays and Game Comparisons - September 22, 2022
We have a few games that should see some decent sized betting action in College Football Thursday night.
West Virginia faces off against Virginia Tech on ESPN, Coastal Carolina will play in Georgia State on ESPN2. A third game between Chattanooga and Illinois will be shown on BTN.
The line on West Virginia was -1.5 after opening at -2.5. As of Wednesday night, most books were sitting on the -2.5.
The power ratings based on the Week 4 Sagarin released numbers come out to West Virginia 3.78 with the home field advantage factored in. The line opened at -3 and has dropped to -1.5 favoring West Virginia. This gives us a line that was pretty much On the Money to open and is now a 2-point underlay.
The Hokies as a home favorite since 2017 is 19-6 Straight Up (76%) while West Virginia has won just three games Straight Up out of fifteen (20%) since 2017 as an away underdog.
Based on the Week 4 Sagarin power ratings, Gambling911.com gets a very early number of Fighting Illini 14.98, down from 16.55 with the Week 3 Power Ratings.
The line was -18 but Off The Board at many books.
“They have really good players," Illinois coach Bret Bielema said of the Mocs. "They have an offensive lineman that could start anywhere. They have a defensive tackle that could start anywhere. It doesn’t matter. Both of them will play in the NFL. They have a running back that I think is really talented. They have a lot of good players around him. They’re very well-coached. Coach has done a really good job of getting those guys to play very hard, very fast and very productive players, really offense, defense and special teams. They’re taking advantage of the portal world too. They took Kentucky last year, who’s a really good team, to the fourth quarter.
“They’re a very talented football team and one we’ve got to prepare our tails off because I know they’re coming over here with the idea of one thing, that’s making history for themselves.”
Illinois is 17-0 all-time against FCS opponents.
The Coastal Carolina at Georgia St. line, meanwhile, has managed to stay just under the -3 (at -2.5) with the Chanticleers a road favorite. The number opened at -2 and has briefly touched the 3 early in the week at some books.
We get a number right on the 6 for this game using this week's power ratings and have identified a 3-point underlay in this one.
Boston College vs. Virginia Tech is a good comparison game to look at here as this one featured a 5-point underlay with the line hardly moving off the 2.5. The favorite Virginia Tech won by double digits.
As an away favorite, Coastal Carolina is 10-2 Straight Up since 2017. That sample size isn't enough to make us pull the trigger on a moneyline play.
As an underdog, the Panthers have gone 12-22 Straight Up since 2017.
The Panthers do come into this game 0-3 both Straight Up and Against The Spread compared to Coastal Carolina's 3-0 SU record and 1-1-1 ATS.
The road team has won all five of these meetings since 2017.
Georgia State was a +13 dog last year and beat Coastal Carolina by two points.
The Panthers come into this one desperate. We'll sit this one out and the Mocs vs. Fighting Illini but the moneyline on Virginia Tech is too enticing to pass up.
- Ean Lamb, Gambling911.com
