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How Do I Know if a Line on a Game is Correct?

Written by:
Guest
Published on:
Nov/06/2017

A line on a game is deemed correct without any shading if the calculations from weekly updated power ratings total accurately. 

Variations are typically a result of injuries or consistent recent trends. 

In a 2017 Week 10 game, the San Francisco 49ers were dealing with a series of injuries, among them, FS Jaquiski Tartt (arm) and TE Cole Hikutini (knee) on injured reserve.

Taking on the Giants, the newly updated power ratings would indicate a PICK’EM or maybe a -1 with either team favored.  Indeed, San Francisco opened at -1.  This line would be considered correct.

A marquee might be a game such as the Saints vs. Bills.  The power ratings have New Orleans as a firm -2.  The line did open with New Orleans -2.5, again pretty much on the money.

The Cowboys vs. Falcons line should be a  PICK’EM or -1 favoring Atlanta.

Here we have a bit of shading up to two full points.  These are the types of games we like to consider the shading and the idea that Dallas stands a better than 50% chance of covering the spread.  Perhaps Atlanta wins by two points or the Cowboys win outright. 

Large shades of 3 points or more should be avoided as there are often underlying reasons (the aforementioned injuries and historic trends).

- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com

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