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$1.7 million. That's the amount of volume traded on which brands gamblers believe will be advertising during this year's Super Bowl (2026) at Kalshi.
The most trading has been on Allstate Insurance thus far at a 59% clip. The company's chances shot as high as 67% on Friday. Coinbase came in at 58% tied with Anthropic. All three brands have been alternating in terms of best chance in recent days.
This does mean these are the more likely brands to advertise.
We already know that Hims and Hers will be returning to advertise during this year's Super Bowl.
Pepsi, Liquid Death and ChatGPT are others already expected to run commercials.
Amazon Prime came in with an 84% chance while Paramount+ was next on the list with a 57% chance.
Per Kalshi's rules, A qualifying advertisement includes any commercial featuring the brand, sponsorship segments clearly identifying the brand (e.g., "This halftime show brought to you by..."), or branded content integration with prominent display. The ad must occur after kickoff and before regulation time (or overtime if any) ends. Stadium signage without dedicated airtime, pre-game ads, post-game ads, streaming-only ads, regional ads, and parent company ads without specific brand identification do not qualify. Co-branded advertisements with equal billing count as qualifying.
Only the Super Bowl game spread and MVP prop option came in with more volume. A total of $157,482,543 in volume has so far been traded at Kalshi already, a full week prior to the big game kicking off.
Kalshi is available for trading in all US states.
- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com
