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Gambling911.com resident bookmaker expert Tony Caliente breaks down the Birmingham Bowl and who is likely to win based on the line movement and the power ratings.
This one featured a line of -3 USF and there has only been a half point move off of -2.5. All books were holding at -3 as of early Saturday morning. 60% of the spread action was coming in on USF so it certainly makes sense that the line would move up to -3. The books do not have any interest in taking this one above that dreaded number. This is an indication that the books believe this one could end with a 3-point Bulls victory.
The Red Raiders own a record of 6-6 Straight Up while the Bulls only had two losses on the season. With this in mind, that -2.5/-3 line seems a little low on the surface.
The NFL Betting Power Ratings tell us otherwise with a line that should be set at South Florida -1. There is no home field advantage here with the game being played in Northern Alabama.
- Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
