Stanford vs. California Spread Settling in at 6.5

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Stanford vs. California Spread

The Stanford vs. California spread was now at Stanford -6.5 at the majority of online sportsbooks after opening at a line of -8.  60 percent of the spread action was going Stanford’s way.  The total betting action was even on the OVER/UNDER 51.5.

Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck has helped make his team an offensive powerhouse.  Luck has 25 touchdowns with a completion percentage (69.6) and passer rating (159.7) that are among the top 10 nationally.

He failed to throw a touchdown last week against Arizona State but still led his team to victory thanks to a 10-play, 85-yard drive that resulted in an Owen Marecic one-yard touchdown run and a 17-13 final score.

"When you have the best quarterback in the nation, a Heisman candidate on the other side of the ball, you just have do your job and keep them out of the end zone," cornerback Richard Sherman said. "No matter how long it takes, he's going to get it done."

California, meanwhile, nearly stunned number one Oregon last week.

Cal's kicker Giorgio Tavecchio missed a 29-yard field goal in the fourth quarter that would have given Cal a 16-15 lead. Before that kick, Tavecchio had been 6-for-6 on field goals of less than 30 yards this season.  Oregon won by its smallest victory of the season:  2 points. 

Let’s look at some important betting trends involving Stanford vs. California.

Cal has covered 4 of the last 6 in this series.

California has won 7 of the last 8 in this series.  While we are giving California the edge when it comes to this trend, note that Stanford is a vastly improved team while Cal is going in the opposite direction.  The edge applies mostly to the Golden Bears long odds at home. (edge: California)

The Cardinal are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

The Cardinal are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Golden Bears are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

The Cardinal are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.

The Golden Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.

California in home games over the last three seasons is 13-3 Against The Spread (edge: California)

With two strong edges going towards California, would encourage careful review of that +6.5 spread.

- Don Shapiro, 

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