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Gambling911.com resident bookmaker expert Tony Caliente breaks down the Independence Bowl to determine if the line on this game is accurate.
Typically when you see an 8-4 team go up against one that is 6-6 on a neutral field, the team with the 8-4 record is not coming into the game as a +17 dog.
That’s what Southern Mississippi is here.
While it’s true the Seminoles managed to finish their season out strong, they also lost their long time head coach Jimbo Fisher to Texas A&M.
Here’s the problem: The College Football Betting Power Rankings suggest the line on this game should be Seminoles -19.
Florida State is still considered a College Football powerhouse, despite their early season struggles. They do rank at the bottom 30 in the Power Ratings. Southern Mississippi sits around 100.
Florida State will be without many key value and this should bring their line value down. Cornerback Derwin James, receiver Ermon Lane, linebacker Matthew Thomas and defensive lineman Josh Sweat have all decided to skip the bowl game and prepare for the NFL Draft, rather than risk injury.
The line has moved from -15 to -17 then back down to -15 again. Action was mostly on Southern Mississippi.
This is the type of game, if I were a sports bettor, I’d steer away from. Too many unknowns. We know FSU should be the better team, but with so many top players missing, this spread shouldn’t appeal to gamblers.
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- Tony Caliente, Gambling911.com
