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Should I Bet the Alabama Crimson Tide in College Football This Week?

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Oct/12/2022

The Alabama Crimson Tide have mostly been taking care of business this season thus far if we exclude that game against Texas that nearly ruined their chances of making it to the Playoffs.

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This article was originally published on October 1, 2022 and has been updated on October 12, 2022.

Coming into this game, Alabama was 6-0 Straight Up and 4-2  Against The Spread.  They have punished those teams the Tide were supposed to beat but struggled against what was really their only competitive opponent to date, Texas.  That was before Arkansas, however, where they won 49-26.  Unfortunately, they also lost their starting quarterback, Bryce Young, to a shoulder injury.

Redshirt freshman Jalen Milroe quarterbacked Alabama to the 24-20 win over the Aggies last week.  That was their second failed cover.

Young is likely to return against Tennessee but this was not a given.

Alabama @ Tennessee

Certainly the Crimson Tide's toughest test of the season thus far.  They come into this game as a -7.5 or -7 road favorite depending on the book.  We get a number of 8.39 Alabama, which mostly has the game with a 1-point underlay.

Tennessee has not beaten Alabama in ten games.  In fact, they haven't done so since 2006.

A comparable game would be Clemson -7 Wake with very little in the way of any line movement and Wake Forest just managing a cover as the Tigers won by 6 points in OT.  The line was on the money, similar to here.

We also had West Virginia +7/+7.5 vs. Pittsburgh with the dog mostly covering 7-point loss.  Like the Tide-Vols game, there is a 1-point underlay to the line being on the money.  Similar to the Clemson vs. Wake Forest game, this one fell pretty much on the line or within a point.

Alabama vs. Texas A&M

With no Bryce Young, Bama won by a mere four points and failed to cover against Texas A&M.

Alabama closed as a -24 home favorite against the Aggies.

Alabama @ Arkansas

The Tide faced their biggest test of the season against a solid Arkansas team that lost its first game against Texas A&M on the road last week by a mere two points.

Alabama came into this game as a -17.5 favorite.  The line had been as low as -16.5 after opening up on some even lower numbers early on.

The Sagarin power ratings had the Tide sitting pretty on top and Arkansas still in a solid number 32 position.  Once we factored in home field advantage for the Hogs, we got a magic number of 17.86, which put this one right on the money.  Alabama ended up covering.

Alabama Crimson Tide 2022 Schedule

Alabama Crimson Tide 2022 Schedule

Date: Opponent (Location)
Sept. 3: vs. Utah State Aggies (Tuscaloosa, Ala.), 7:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network
Sept. 10: at Texas Longhorns (Austin, Texas), 12 p.m. ET on FOX
Sept. 17: ULM Warhawks (Tuscaloosa, Ala.), 4 p.m. ET on SEC Network
Sept. 24: vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)
Oct. 1: at Arkansas Razorbacks (Fayetteville, Ark.)
Oct. 8: vs. Texas A&M Aggies (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)
Oct. 15: at Tennessee Volunteers (Knoxville, Tenn.)
Oct. 22: vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)
Nov. 5: at LSU Tigers (Baton Rouge, La.)
Nov. 12: at Ole Miss Rebels (Oxford, Miss.)
Nov. 19: vs. Austin Peay Governors (Tuscaloosa, Ala.), 12 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Nov. 26: vs. Auburn Tigers (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)

Resources

Can I Bet the DraftKings Sportsbook App From Alabama?

Alabama @ Texas

The Sagarin ratings at the time were as follows with home field advantage tacked onto the Longhorns number: Alabama (98.02) Texas (84.12) = 11.76.

With a line of -21 favoring the Tide, we were seeing an overlay of as much as 7 to 9 points.

The dog (Texas A&M) not only covered, they lost by a mere one point. Action was 80% Tide.

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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