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Missouri vs. Nebraska Spread: Line Steady at -7.5

Written by:
Dan Shapiro
Published on:
Oct/28/2010
Missouri vs. Nebraska

The Missouri vs. Nebraska spread will likely be one of the most wagered on of the College Football weekend (Week 9 2010).  The line remained steady at Nebraska -7.5 at BetUS.com.  The spread action was relatively even Thursday evening.  Close to 80 percent of the money line action was coming in on Missouri, which would pay out $25 for every $10 bet should the Tigers win outright.  The OVER 56 on the total was getting a remarkable 95 percent of the betting action in this game.  Gambling911.com does not anticipate the spread to move off of 7.5 before game time due to the balanced action.

The Scout’s Edge says of this game:

Nebraska's inability to generate consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks with a four-man rush is a concern, but the Cornhuskers have the athletes in the back seven to cause more problems for Gabbert than Oklahoma did. Missouri's defense has held its own against some potent offenses, but Nebraska's option attack will eventually wear the Tigers down. Nebraska has an edge on special teams and will feed off of the energy of the home crowd, which will help the Huskers hand Missouri its first loss of the season.

They believe an 8-point win by Nebraska is most likely.  Let’s look at some important trends to determine which team has the edge here when it comes to covering in this game.
 

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As a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points, Missouri is 5-1 since 1992.  The Cornhuskers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite. (edge: Missouri)

Though the away team has won the last two in this series, the prior six games were won by the home team.  Nebraska won as the away team last season and is only 2-6 over the last 8 in this series.  Missouri has covered four times.  It is difficult to say which team really has an edge based on this particular trend.

The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win but are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.

The Cornhuskers are 11-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.  The Tigers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

- Dan Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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