College Football Picks – 2010 Week 11

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
College Football Picks – 2010 Week 11 has your College Football picks for 2010 Week 11 based on some crucial trends.

Georgia vs. Auburn – Auburn is a -8 home favorite vs. the Bulldogs.  Georgia has covered three of the last four in this series, but more importantly, they have won the last four games in this series Straight Up.  This stat alone gives Georgia a tremendous edge. Add to that, as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points, Auburn is just 1-8 ATS since 1992. 

San Diego State vs. TCU – 10-0 and number 3-ranked Texas Christian is a huge -21 point favorite against a San Diego State team that has only lost two games thus from this season.  TCU has won all five in this series and beat San Diego State by more than the current spread in three of those games, including the last two.  The Aztecs are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a S.U. win.  The Horned Frogs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win.  There is not a tremendous edge for either team with this spread, however.

Penn State vs. Ohio State – The Buckeyes have covered the spread in three of the last four in this series.  The line is Ohio State -17.5 in the upcoming game and Ohio State has won by more than that number in all three of those previous games.   The Nittany Lions are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog overall.  The Buckeyes are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.  When it comes to 2010 Week 11 College Football picks, Ohio State at -17.5 should be a winner.

Oklahoma State vs. Texas – The Longhorns were 6 point underdogs.  They have won the last 10 in this series, always as favorites.  They are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog but just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  This is a toss up, just because Texas is so bad this season. 

Mississippi State vs. Alabama – The Crimson Tide were -13.5 favorites here.  The standout stat here is that the Crimson Tide is just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.  Still a tough call.  The UNDER 46 is something to look at though.  As a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points, Mississippi State is just 2-10 ATS on the OVER during the past three seasons and 4-13 ATS in home games.  Alabama is just 8-20 ATS on the OVER against conference rivals.  The Under is 5-0 in Bulldogs last 5 conference games. suggests playing on the UNDER 46.

USC vs. Arizona – Arizona is at -4 and has covered the last 5 in this series even though USC has won 4 of the last five.  The Trojans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. They are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 5-13 ATS in their last 18 conference games and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.

The Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  A play on Arizona is probably a smart choice. 

- Dan Shapiro,

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